Leftfield, normally a source of power and run production, was neither for Cleveland last year.  Instead, the team ran out eight different players at the position (beginning with the most playing time): Michael Brantley, Shelley Duncan, Austin Kearns, Travis Buck, Ezequiel Carrera, Jerad Head, Trevor Crowe, and, yes, even Luis Valbuena.  Combined, they hit .233/.303/.336.  Their OPS, a miserable .639, was bettered by 217 of the 234 players that received 350+ at bats.  It was so low that Mike Napoli’s slugging percentage trailed it by only eight points – eight points!  Overall, they were worth less than one win above replacement.

Michael Brantley, whose 276 plate appearances led the way, hit .250/.307/.361 during his time in left field (.266/.318/.384 overall). He’s slated as the Opening Day starter next season, which, if anything, means that the leftfield carousel should somewhat cease, at least until Sizemore needs a break, or gets injured.

Photo Courtesy of Keith Allison via Flickr.com

Brantley’s a bit of a conundrum: he owns a spectacular 292-to-218 minor league walk-to-strikeout ratio, which was against older competition, but those numbers, especially the walk rate (11.8%), have yet to translate into the big leagues.  His major league SO/BB ratio, on the other hand, is 64/133.  He’s now entering his fourth year, has yet to play more than 114 games, and will soon be 25-years-old.  His time as an everyday starter could be coming to an end before it really had a chance to begin.

During his three previous stints in the big leagues, his walk rate has virtually remained unchanged: 6.6%, 6.8%, and most recently, 6.9%.  Last season he started turning on the inside pitch, driving it for more power, and his ISO, though still low, increased almost 40 points, to .118.  He also hasn’t run as efficiently, or as often, as he showed in the minors.

But the question isn’t whether Brantley is the team’s long term starting left- or center fielder.  The question is: can he, Shelley Duncan, Aaron Cunningham, Ryan Spilborghs and possibly Thomas Neal outperform last season’s production?

The answer: yes – a resounding YES – but almost by default, just because the bar has been set so low.  Simply, there’s no reasonable way that the team couldn’t cobble a leftfield platoon that could do any worse than last season’s.

The lack of improvement in Brantley’s walk rate is most likely a direct result of his shortage of power.  Pitchers just aren’t afraid to challenge him, especially on the inner half.  Yes, his slugging percentage was a career best, but it’s still 15-percentage points below the league average.  At 6-foot-2 and 200 pounds, he isn’t a small guy so there is hope he could continue to get more leverage from his body, but until he does there isn’t any reason to suspect anything above league average walk rates.

His average, as a result of his BABIP normalizing, jumped 20 points in 2011, and it could see another slight improvement in 2012.  Brantley has good foot-speed, a key component in posting higher BABIPs.  Look for that number to jump a little bit, perhaps to .310, this season, taking along with it his batting average.  His walk rate, 6.9%, could also see a slight improvement too – if he can at least maintain his slugging percentage.  Look for him to hit .270/.330/.390 next year, steal 20 to 25 bases, and earn about 2.5 wins next season, perhaps even more if he can stay the entire year in left field where his defense would be above-average.

Assuming Brantley shifts over to center field for a significant amount of time, Duncan, Cunningham, Spilborghs, and Neal should be able to earn at least half of a win in left field.

Duncan’s a career .239/.313/.441 hitter, with solid walk rates, but would be a liability in the field in extended action.  He should be able to .240/.315/.440, and assuming he would be replaced for defensive purposes in late in games, that would be worth about half of a win.  Cunningham, a former top 60 prospect according to Baseball America, has showed little during his four brief big league stints, but has hit incredibly well in the minors throughout his career (.306/.379/.490) and has the defensive chops to be a positive contributor in leftfield.  Spilborghs, a former Colorado outfielder, owns a career .272/.345/.423, but has been atrocious in the outfield during his career, but should be worth about one win in the right platoon.  And Neal, who has also performed well in his minor league career (.295/.371/.463), has yet to make his big league debut, but, again, there’s no reason to believe that he couldn’t top the .639 OPS and should provide some positive value in the field too

So, no matter who the team runs out there next season, the bar was set so low last year that there should be at least 1.5 win improvement.