Rethinking My Rant Against Chris Perez

Over the past few months I’ve dedicated quite a few words about Cleveland Indians closer Chris Perez, ranting about how I think he’s highly overrated, that the Indians failed to sell high on a declining player, and how he seems to rely too much on his natural ability.

And I still stand behind those points wholeheartedly.  But, truthfully, I’ve also had a change of heart, sort of.

Chris Perez isn’t the best Cleveland reliever; Vinnie Pestano is.  And even though some people will accept this as a fact, I also know the majority of people reading this will think I’m crazy, after all Perez saved 36 games last season!

I, like so many other analysts, don’t care about saves.

But I’ll quickly explain the two key differences between the relievers:

• At 1.5 fWAR last season, Pestano was an elite reliever, barely missing the top 20 in baseball; Perez, on the other hand, was barely replacement level (i.e. the average minor league reliever).
• Pestano shows elite strikeout rates (12.19 K/9 last season) to go along with an average walk rate (3.48 BB/9); Perez was horrific last season (5.88 K/9 and 3.92 BB/9) and has been declining for a few years.

So, in my mind – and hopefully now yours too – Pestano is clearly the better reliever.  And it makes sense to have your best reliever pitching in the most important innings of a game, which the Indians have been doing, by design or not.

And it’s all about Win Expectancy.

Basically, win expectancy is exactly what it sounds like.  What are the team’s odds for winning a game given a specific situation?  For example, in the top of the seventh with the score tied, the home team has a 50-50 chance of winning the game.  However, in the bottom of the seventh with the score tied, the home team has 59.2% chance of winning the game because they have three more outs than the away team.

Via Tom Tango, the baseball analyst version of sliced bread, The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball has all the possible win expectancies for a league average team, for every possible game-state.

So getting back to the point: Pestano is the best Tribe reliever and he’s the team’s primary eighth-inning setup man, and Perez is the team’s closer.  The following are the win expectancies for the start of the eighth and ninth innings for both the away and home teams (the numbers in columns two through ten are the run differentials):

Again, as a team you want your best reliever pitching in the most crucial situations.  Meaning: any time the game is closest to 50%.  For example, would it make sense to throw your best reliever when your team has a 26.5% chance of winning, or 17.4%?  Obviously, it’s the former.  Or what about if your team has only a 73.4% chance of winning, or an 82.5?  Again, it’s the former.

And according to the chart, the eighth inning is far more crucial than the ninth.  And I know some – and by that I mean most – won’t believe this, but it’s a proven fact.

Yes, I also realize the odds of winning in the seventh are even greater if the best reliever is used, but that’s never done.  I know that.  You know.  But the Indians, like every other team in baseball, don’t structure their bullpen as such.

They do, however, employ their best reliever – Vinnie Pestano in the eighth inning – during the most crucial time of the final two innings.  And I love that.

So while I still think the same thoughts about Perez, it’s actually better they pitch him in the ninth instead of the eighth.  Let’s just not pay him some ridiculous amount of money for save totals.

 

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

For attempted humor, snarky comments, and baseball updates follow the site on Twitter, @ReleasePoints.

Or if you’re at work or just looking to kill more time check out the Archives tab here or the site’s homepage here.