Last Thursday, the Cleveland Indians announcedthe dismissal of pitching coach Scott Radinsky, a move hastened by the club’s 11-game downward spiral that ended just two days before, a streak that essentially pushed the franchise from the edge of the playoff discussion to a mere afterthought.
Photo Courtesy of Keith Allison via Flickr.com
Radinsky, who spent nine seasons with the organization, was in his first year as the team’s pitching coach after spending the previous two as the bullpen coach.
According to GM Chris Antonetti, the organization “did not want it look like Scott bore the whole brunt of the streak.” Well, that’s exactly what it looks like. But was his dismissal really warranted?
The Indians surprised a number of pundits last season, winning 80 games, 11 more than the previous year. The team’s pitching staff, led by former coach Tim Belcher, drifted between average – 15.5 fWAR, the sixteenth best total in baseball – to well below it – 4.24 ERA (23rd), 6.34 K/9 (29th), and a 4.06 FIP (21st). The staff’s only saving graces were a strong groundball rate (45.5%, eighth best in baseball) and the seventh best walk rate, 2.87 BB/9.
During Radinsky’s tenure this season the team sported a 4.74 ERA and a 3.60 BB/9, both noticeably worse, but the staff’s strikeout rate, 6.64 K/9, FIP, 4.35, and groundball rate, 46.6%, were all relatively close*.
Note: I couldn’t find the groundball rate from Opening Day through August 8th, Radinsky’s last day; the total GB% includes the past four games, a span that would have negligible impact on the overall total.
So, basically the team went a groundball, finesse pitching staff with above-average control to a groundball, finesse pitching staff with a high walk rate. On the surface the argument in favor of parting ways with Radinsky could be made, after all, the team did regress mightily in a previous area of strength. But let’s take it step further. Let’s look at it on a case by case basis:
Justin Masterson – his development last season took a large leap forward, going from back-to-back years of just above league average production to one of the top 10 starters in the American League. This season, however, he’s regressed back his pre-2011 totals. Below are his totals:
| YEAR | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | LOB% |
|
2009 |
8.28 |
4.18 |
0.84 |
68.6% |
|
2010 |
7.00 |
3.65 |
0.70 |
66.6% |
|
2011 |
6.58 |
2.71 |
0.46 |
72.9% |
|
2012 |
7.08 |
3.96 |
0.72 |
66.8% |
Look at the four seasons. Which one is the outlier? Last year, obviously. Otherwise, this year’s numbers fall exactly in line with his career marks.
Ubaldo Jimenez – pitched a lot better last year than his 5.10 ERA with the team would suggest; his strikeout and walk rates – 8.54 K/9 and 3.72 BB/9 – fell almost exactly in line with his career norms. This season, however, he’s averaging 7.3 strikeouts and 5.2 walks per nine innings. And it’s well-known fact, especially to Clevelanders, that Jimenez has struggled with his mechanics the entire year. But there are other issues in play here, namely psychological. His velocity has declined for the third straight year, and is he simply sacrificing command for additional oomph behind his fastball?
Josh Tomlin – was one of the luckiest – if not luckiest – pitchers in baseball last season. His BABIP, .253, was the sixth lowest in baseball, and completely unsustainable for a finesse pitcher that barely averages a strikeout every other inning. This season it’s regressed back near the league average, at .309. His BB-rate has spiked by about one full walk to 2.18, but, again, it falls in line with his 2010 numbers split between the major and minor leagues.
Derek Lowe – simply put, he declined far faster than the team ever could have imagined. He outpitched his ERAs over the past three seasons in Atlanta, but his steep decline in strikeouts is the culprit, not his control (3.37 BB/9 in 2011 and 3.40 in 2012).
Jeanmar Gomez – like Masterson and Tomlin, his control has come back to earth after peaking last season (2.31 BB/9). This season’s total, 3.21, is almost identical to his past two years in Triple-A (3.20 and 3.25).
Zach McAllister – has actually pitched slightly better in the big leagues (7.06 K/9 and 2.31BB/9) than at Triple-A this year (7.39 K/9 and 2.70 BB/9).
Two absences this year – Carlos Carrasco and Roberto Hernandez – have also hurt the team. Carrasco, who’s recovering from Tommy John surgery, was developing into a solid number four starter and averaged just 2.89 walks per nine innings. And Carmona was just slightly better, at 2.86.
As far as the bullpen goes, Vinnie Pestano (3.18 BB/9), Chris Perez (2.32), and Esmil Rogers (2.03) have shown improvement, the latter two on pace for career years. And Perez in particular has become a dominant reliever after three mediocre years. Tony Sipp and Jeremy Accardo have hovered near their career marks. And Joe Smith, after having a career year last season, has regressed back to his career norms. Nick Hagadone really struggled this year, but, again, he’s had consistent issues with his control throughout his career.
The Indians haven’t declined because of Radinsky; instead they’ve had several pitchers regress back to their norms after career years and have really been hurt by the loss of Carrasco and Hernandez. And, really, only one pitcher, Jimenez, has shown a decline that can’t be accounted for.
Antonetti didn’t want him to be the scapegoat, but that’s exactly what’s happened, especially once you look at the numbers. And you have to think that nine years in the organization would have outweighed one horrific losing streak.
