Four of the team’s picks — catcher Mike Zunino, second baseman Timmy Lopes, left-hander Tyler Pike and shortstop Joe DeCarlo — all currently rank among the system’s top 16 prospects.

Zunino looks like a middle-of-the-bat with plus-power coming from an elite position; Lopes, nabbed in the sixth round, hit a surprising .316/.381/.479 during his time in the ASL; Pike showed promising peripherals, and DeCarlo, the 64^th overall pick, was the only one in the bunch to struggle, though he still managed to show some pop and solid on-base skills.

Outside of those players, shortstop Brad Miller looks like an above-average regular thanks to his offensive potential. Former top prospect Nick Franklin’s shine has dulled a bit due to some continued struggles against left-handers. And both Carter Capps and Stephen Pryor have impact late-inning potential.

For in-depth analysis for all the below prospects, check out my new site, ProspectDigest.com, or click here. 

#1. Taijuan Walker, Age: 20, Position: RHP

#2. Mike Zunino, Age: 22, Position: C

#3. Danny Hultzen, Age: 23, Position: LHP

#4.  Brandon Maurer, Age: 22, Position: RHP

#5. Brad Miller, Age: 23, Position: SS

#6. Carter Capps, Age: 22, Position: RHP

#7. Nick Franklin, Age: 22, Position: 2B/SS

#8. James Paxton, Age: 24, Position: LHP

#9. Stephen Pryor, Age: 23, Position: RHP

#10. Stefen Romero, Age: 24, Position: 2B

#11. Victor Sanchez, Age: 18, Position: RHP

#12. Anthony Fernandez, Age: 23, Position: LHP

#13. Timmy Lopes, Age: 19, Position: 2B

#14. Tyler Pike, Age: 19, Position: LHP

#15. Gabriel Guerrero, Age: 19, Position: RF

#16. Joe DeCarlo, Age: 19, Position: 3B

After taking a risk on Jackie Bradley (wrist injury) in the 2011 supplemental first round, the young center fielder showed incredible promise last season and could be ready by Opening Day 2014, maybe even late this season. Third baseman Garin Cecchini showed incredible speed and base stealing prowess in A-ball and should develop at least 15- to 20-homerun power. Travis Shaw, a ninth round pick out of Kent State University, has the potential to become a slightly above-average big league regular. And with Sean Coyle, Blake Swihart, Alixon Suarez and Deven Marrero milling around in the lower minors, the organization has plenty of young offensive talent.

On the arms side of the system, the team has a intriguing collection of potential #2 through #4 starting pitchers making their way through the minors, led by Matt Barnes, Allen Webster, Brandon Workman, Brian Johnson and Pat Light. And left-hander Henry Owens, who dominated the A-ball competition at 19-years-old, could be a special arm with elite potential.

There’s really only one elite prospect in the system, Bogaerts, with the potential for another in Owens, but there’s plenty of quality depth on both sides of the ball.  And there are a handful of others that just missed — Jose Iglesias, Jamie Callahan, Bryce Brentz, and Aaron Kurcz — that could rank among the top 16 for other organizations.

Below are the top 16 prospects in the Red Sox’s organization. For complete analysis click here to jump over to my new site, ProspectDigest.com

#1. Xander Bogaerts, Age: 20, Position: SS

#2. Jackie Bradley, Age: 23, Position: CF

#3. Matt Barnes, Age: 23, Position: RHP

#4. Henry Owens, Age: 20, Position: LHP

#5. Garin Cecchini, Age: 22, Position: 3B

#6. Travis Shaw, Age: 23, Position: 1B

#7. Allen Webster, Age: 23, Position: RHP

#8. Brian Johnson, Age: 22, Position: LHP

#9. Brandon Workman, Age: 24, Position: RHP

#10. Sean Coyle, Age: 21, Position: 2B

#11. Blake Swihart, Age: 21, Position: C

#12. Pat Light, Age: 22, Position: RHP

#13. Anthony Ranaudo, Age: 23, Position: RHP

#14. Deven Marrero, Age: 22, Position: SS

#15. Alixon Suarez, Age: 18, Position: C

#16. Miguel Pena, Age: 22, Position: LHP

From the A’s perspective, the organization adds a solid defensive shortstop in Lowrie, who has some offensive upside. In an injury-marred 2012 season, the former Red Sox top prospect hit .244/.331/.448 with 18 doubles, 16 homeruns, and a pair of stolen bases. His total offensive production, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, was 11% better than the league average, the fifth highest mark among shortstops with 300+ plate appearances. Along with the ceiling of a 4.0-win player, Lowrie’s also battled injuries throughout his career, failing to top 100 games in a season since 2008.

For complete analysis check out my new site, ProspectDigest.com, here.

Photo Courtesy of Keith Allison via Flickr.com

Choo, who’s heading into his final season under team control, already rebuffed numerous attempts by the Indians for a long term contract, leaving the organization with just three options: deal him during the offseason, move him near the deadline, or let walk via free agency and nab (hopefully) a draft pick.

Well, we know which option they went with.

Tonight, the Indians shipped Choo and utility infielder Jason Donald to the Reds for center fielder Drew Stubbs and shortstop prospect Didi Gregorius. Cleveland then flipped Gregorius, reliever Tony Sipp and minor league first baseman Lars Anderson for right-handers Trevor Bauer, Bryan Shaw and Matt Albers.

Cleveland Indians:

The Indians have more than a few holes in the rotation, and acquiring Bauer, the number three pick in the 2011 draft, should fill one of those.  He seemingly fell out of favor rather quickly in Arizona, particularly after his disappointing four-game MLB stint in midseason, and it’s hard to understand why.

He’s been dominant along each brief stop in minors, averaging more than 11.5 K/9 to go along with a 3.01 Skill Independent ERA. The lone red flag thus far has been slightly below-average command, though it did improve to 3.13 BB/9 after his demotion in July. He instantly becomes Cleveland’s best pitching prospect and their best overall prospect, even ahead of shortstop wunderkind Francisco Lindor. The further development of his command will ultimately determine if he can develop into a true ace or settle as a good number two.

Stubbs is a very toolsy center fielder coming off of the worst season of his career. He has solid-average power, plus speed, and an above-average glove in center field. Sure, he strikes out a lot – a helluva lot, actually (29.3% in his career). But I don’t give a damn about that. It didn’t hinder him from totaling more than 6.5 wins above replacement in 2010 and 2011. What did cause his decline last season was a major regression in batting average on balls in play, or BABIP. From 2010 and 2011 his BABIP was .337; last season it was nearly 50 points lower, at .290.

Stubbs is also kind of the anti-Choo, struggling against righties, not lefties. But fortunately enough for the Indians, a sizeable amount of his value comes from his speed, either on the base paths or in the outfield. He’s going to improve in 2013 and should be capable of putting up something north of 2.5 wins above replacement, or about Choo’s production last season.

Both Shaw and Albers are middle relief arms, serviceable but certainly replaceable, much like Tony Sipp.

Cincinnati Reds:

Choo was once an elite five-tool player, posting more than 11 wins above replacement between 2009 and 2010. Since then he’s battled injuries (2011) and a lot of defensive struggles last season. His total offensive production, however, was still 31% above the league average.

For the Reds, though, it’s a bit of a questionable move, leaving the team without a true center fielder. And he or Jay Bruce will be asked to fill in, which could hinder a fairly significant amount of one of the players’ total value.

The second player received, Jason Donald, never really got a fair shake in Cleveland, which is unfortunate. He definitely has value as an offensive-minded role-player that can handle lefties (.282/.349/.426 in his career).

Arizona Diamondbacks:

Gregorius was aggressively pushed through the Reds’ system, reaching Triple-A last season at the age of 22. And consequently, his bat quite hasn’t caught up yet. But he’s capable of developing into a solid-average bat with average-ish walk rates and power. He could develop into a 2.0- to 3.0-win player, depending how the defensive metrics rate him, which could be quite favorably.

Sipp’s always posted fantastic K-rates throughout his career, and while his command has improved, the propensity for homeruns has really gnawed into his overall value. He was quite a bit unlucky last year (71.9% strand rate).

Anderson’s a quad-A player, sort of. He was once a former top prospect but has really petered out over the last few seasons.

Conclusion:

Overall, the Indians should easily win this one; they acquired a Major League ready starting pitcher who should step in and at the very worst become a good number three, as well as an above-average outfielder and two serviceable relief arms. For the Reds and Diamondbacks it’s more of a question mark. Who plays center for Cincinnati? And is Tony Sipp and Didi Gregorius really worth Trevor Bauer? Probably not.

Nearly all of the team’s top talent has yet to make Double-A, with many of the young arms establishing themselves in High-A and the top bats still developing in the rookie levels. Outside of Myers, the team has one elite-level bat in Bubba Starling, though his strikeout rates will need to be monitored, and several other positional prospects that could develop into above-average everyday players.

The strength of the system is the young arms, which can be dangerous for any rebuilding club (see: John Lamb, Mike Montgomery, Tim Melville, etc…). But what makes this group more intriguing than in the past is the sheer quantity of quality arms. Led by Kyle Zimmer, Kyle Smith, Yordano Ventura and Jake Odorizzi, the lot should likely withstand injuries and regression to allow the system to burp up at least two, maybe three above-average starters in the coming years.

#1. Wil Myers, Age: 22, Position: OF

Not only the top prospect in the Kansas City system, but arguably in all of baseball. Myers absolutely destroyed minor league pitching to the tune of .314/.387/.600 to go along with 37 homeruns.

Wil Myers (Photo Courtesy of Minda Haas via Flickr.com

Offensively, Myers is the complete package, a middle-of-the-lineup hitter with plus-power, above-average plate discipline and sneaky speed. He’s been masquerading as a center fielder — and a part-time third baseman as well — but his real future is in right.

Projection: Myers has the tools to step in and become one of the better all-around players in the game right now. He’s shown the ability to handle lefties and righties — .294/.373/.557 vs. .288/.373/.499 since 2011 — and is easily the front-runner for the Rookie of the Year.

Ceiling: 6.0-win player

#2. Bubba Starling, Age: 20, Position: OF

In his debut professional season, Starling proved to be a fairly complete package, hitting .275/.371/.485 with 10 homeruns, 10 stolen bases, a decent walk rate and six assists from center fielder. The lone red flag on an otherwise solid year was his strikeout total: 70 punch outs in 234 plate appearances (30.2%).

Projection: Once the Royals promote Myers — which should have happened some time last season — Starling should take the point as top prospect. Given his ungodly K-rate, it would be prudent for the organization to proceed with caution, at least early in his career. And assuming he can keep them in check in the future, Starling should develop into another middle-of-the-lineup hitter and contributor to both sides of the ball.

Ceiling: 4.0- to 5.0-win player

#3. Kyle Zimmer, Age: 21, Position: RHP

Zimmer was nothing short of impressive in nine starts following his selection in the 2012 draft, fifth overall, averaging 9.5 K/9 to just 1.8 BB/9 and showing a plus-groundball rate (54.1%). And despite the solid ERA, 2.43, he was quite unlucky, posting a .367 BABIP.

Projection: The Royals have been extremely aggressive with high draft pick starting pitchers over the past few years — see Luke Hochevar and Aaron Crow — and Zimmer will likely be on the same path, potentially positioning himself as a late-September call up. There’s not a lot of data to go on as far as his future is concerned — remember, Hochevar posted similar peripherals during his first 20 minor league starts — so 2013 will provide a better picture.

Ceiling: 3.5-win player, a conservative estimate

#4. Jorge Bonifacio, Age: 20, Position: OF

As a 19-year-old, Bonifacio more than held his own, hitting .282/.336/.432 in the Midwest League with 10 homeruns and six stolen bases; his total offensive production, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, was 16% better than the league average.

Bonifacio showed an average-ish eye — 6.7% BB-rate — but it was a modest increase over the year before, despite facing better competition.

Projection: Bonifacio’s tools may not grade out across the board as high as Bubba Starling’s, but the former doesn’t have the glaring red flag — the K-rate — that the latter showed, despite playing against more advanced competition. His power took a modest step back in 2012, which is understandable considering that he was two years younger than the average Midwest hitter, but the fact that he improved not only his walk rate but also his K-rate bodes really well for his future.

Ceiling: 3.5-win player

#5. Adalberto Mondesi, Age: 17, Position: SS

As the youngest player in the Pioneer League last season, Mondesi, who’s father Raul is a former All-Star, hit .290/.346/.386 and featured a fairly complete offensive toolkit, though he needs plenty of work defensively.

To go along with above-average speed — he swiped 11 bags in 13 tries — Mondesi’s power came better than advertised and has the potential to become at least league average. And his plate discipline — 8.2% BB-rate — belies his youth. His overall offensive production, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, was just 10% below the league average, despite being four years younger than the average hitter in the league.

Defensively, he remains a work in progress, committing 23 errors in just 47 games.

Projection: Mondesi’s far more advanced than his age would suggest. However, the Royals don’t have a low-A affiliate, and the prudent move would be for more seasoning among the organization’s four rookie level ball clubs. Don’t be surprised if he either moves off of shortstop eventually — he’s already 6-foot-1 — or if he makes his big league debut before turning 20.

Ceiling: 4.0-win player

#6. Kyle Smith, Age: 20, Position: RHP

While many of the team’s former ballyhooed high school arms have faltered — Mike Montgomery, John Lamb and Tim Melville just to name a few — the likes of Smith and Jason Adam have helped fill the void.

Smith, the club’s fourth round pick in 2011, breezed through his 13-game stint in low-A, averaging more than 11 punch outs and just over 2.5 walks per nine innings. And the dominance helped overcome a fairly significant amount of bad luck as well; his BABIP, or batting average on balls in play, was high, at .349.

Projection: Despite only making one start in rookie ball, the Royals felt the need — and have shown to be justified — by pushing the then 19-year-old to A-ball. And while this comes with the caveat that all young arms come with, Smith has the potential to move quickly through the system, potentially landing as a number 2-type guy in the Royals’ rotation at some point in his future.

Ceiling: 4.0-win player

#7. Yordano Ventura, Age: 22, Position: RHP

Ventura was dominant during his brief, 16-game stint in high-A, throwing 76.1 innings while averaging more than 11.55 strikeouts and 3.3 walks per nine innings. All of which led to late season cameo in Double-A, where Ventura will likely open the 2013 season.

Despite the small frame — 5-foot-11 and only 140 pounds — Ventura has dominated the lower levels of the minors during his four-year-career, averaging just under 10 K’s per nine innings. But his command in 2012 showed signs of regression, which could ultimately be a blip on the screen given his previously strong track record, or it could suggest that the more advanced hitters he is now beginning to face are showing more patience.

Projection: The data suggests that Ventura could land in the front half of Kansas City’s rotation at some point in the future. But his frame, particularly the weight, almost guarantees that his body probably won’t handle the rigors of 30+ starts in a year. Don’t be surprised if he transitions into a dominant backend option in the pen down the road.

Ceiling: 3.5-win starter pitcher; 1.0-win reliever

#8. Jake Odorizzi, Age: 23, Position: RHP

Odorizzi capped off a moderately successful season with a two-game stint in the big leagues. Once touted as one of the better pitching prospects in the game — he was ranked by Baseball America as the 69^th and 68^th in consecutive seasons — some of the luster may have dulled, if ever so slightly.

Jake Odorizzi (Photo Courtesy of Minda Haas via Flickr.com)

Odorizzi, who has typically averaged more than a punch out an inning throughout his career, saw a significant drop once promoted to Triple-A, though it could be looked upon with at least a touch of skepticism. He underwent a similar decline during his first stint in Double-A before briefly repeating the level at to start the season. But by and large, most of his Triple-A stats were blasé.

His K-rate, 7.38, was only slightly above the PCL average; his walk rate, 3.4, slightly below it. And his overall ERA, 2.93, at the level is misguiding. Both his FIP, 4.19, and SIERA, 4.40, were significantly higher.

Projection: The Royals seemingly have one spot in the rotation open heading into Spring Training and maybe not even that, depending how the front office views Luis Mendoza. Odorizzi would be a significant upgrade, but Kansas City has on occasion mismanaged young talent before. He should develop into a solid number three.

Ceiling: 3.5- to 3.0-win player

#9. Jason Adam, Age: 21, Position: RHP

The organization, which has typically erred on the side of caution when it comes to innings and young arms, almost inexplicably allowed Adam to throw 158 innings in 2012, topping his the previous year’s total by more than 50.

Adam, a fifth rounder in the 2010 draft, certainly looks the part as a durable innings-eater, coming in at 6-foot-4 and 219 pounds. But that’s a lot of innings — only two other 20-year-olds tossed more innings — on a young, promising arm. He spent the entirety of the year in High-A, posting solid peripherals (7.01 K/9 and 2.05 BB/9) in a league where the average pitcher’s age is nearly three years older.

Projection: Adams’ year was solid, not dominating. But he showed a very advanced feel for pitching, walking just 5.6% of batters he faced. And given the numbers of HBPs, 13, it certainly looks like he’s not afraid to challenge hitters on the inside either.  Right now, he profiles as a good mid-rotation starter, maybe a touch better if his K-rates remain stable or improve as he progresses towards the big leagues.

Ceiling: 3.0-win player

#10. Orlando Calixte, Age: 21, Position: SS

Calixte’s power moved to the forefront in 2012, slugging 14 totals homeruns — 10 in A-ball and four in High-A – which more than quadrupled his previous career total. But the most encouraging sign is that during his repeat time in A-ball, his walk rate improved, his K-rate decline, all while showing the dramatic increase in pop.

Now, to be fair, it regressed close to his 2011 levels once he was promoted. But the potential skill set does seem to be there, at least foundationally.

Projection: Calixte’s bat plays well at the position, maybe even with a ceiling as a .260/.330/.430-type hitter. But the question is to be seen whether or not he remains at the position; in 217 games at the position, he’s made an atrocious 69 errors, 46 in 2012 alone. Given his age and the general weak crop of shortstops in the big leagues, the Royals will likely given him at least another 2 to 3 years to show improvement.

Ceiling: 2.5- to 2.0-win player

#13. Brooks Pounders, Age: 22, Position: RHP

The ability to properly evaluate an organization’s own talent is overlooked, often leading unsuccessful — like the Pirates — to not capitalize on a player’s potential fully. And Pounders is just another example.

The 6-foot-4, 270 pound right-hander was Pittsburgh’s second round pick in 2009, out of Temecula Valley High School.  And, almost immediately, the franchise started transitioning Pounders into a fulltime bullpen role, making five relief appearances in 2009, 12 in 2010 and 35 in 2011, his final year in the organization.

Converting 20-year-olds to a bullpen role is meaningless, let alone teenagers that were barely two years removed from being one of the better amateurs in the country.

Kansas City eventually dealt infielder Yamaico Navarro, a midlevel shortstop prospect, for Pounders and Diego Goris and immediately started re-transitioning him back into the rotation, where he started blossoming last season.

Pounders split his time between A-ball and High-A, throwing 134 innings — caution: nearly a 70 inning increase — while punching out just under a batter per inning. His command, which took a large developmental step in his last season in Pittsburgh, improved during the second half of the year in Wilmington, going from 3.4 BB/9 to 2.7 BB/9.

Ceiling: This likely will end up being a bit of coup for Kansas City in the long term. Pounders has the size and control to become a durable innings-eater in the big leagues, who at the very least could be pushed back into a relief role should he run into issues down the road. He’s like to develop into a mid-rotation-type.

Ceiling: 2.5- to 2.0-win starting pitcher; 0.5-win reliever

#12. Sam Selman, Age: 22, Position: LHP

Too old for the level — Pioneer League — but Selman, the team’s most recent second rounder, absolutely dominated, averaging 13.3 K/9 and 3.28 BB/9 in 60.1 innings. The left-hander struggled with free passes in college, averaging more than 5 per nine innings, so the initial improvements at the professional level have to be taken with some level of skepticism, especially considering the level of competition.

Projection: Selman clearly overmatched the competition in the rookie league, striking out more than one-third of the total batters faced. And the Royals could conceivably have him skip A-ball and jump straight to Wilmington on 2013. I’m just not sold on Selman’s future in the rotation; he struggled with command issues in college and those could very well return this year against more age-appropriate competition. He does have the tools to become a dominant backend bullpen option, though.

Ceiling: 1.0- to 0.5-win reliever

#13. Cheslor Cuthbert, Age: 20, Position: 3B

Coming off of a surprising 2011 season, in late March I wrote: “(Cuthbert’s) already solidly built and profiles as having 20+ homerun potential, though he’s still several years away from the big league, three, maybe four.” I capped it off by adding that, “his ceiling is that of a solid, everyday third baseman, perhaps a little better.”

Well, as much of a pleasant surprise 2011 was, the 2012 season was just as equally disappointing, maybe more.

With the Wilmington Blue Rocks in High-A, Cuthbert hit a meager .240/.296/.322 while both his power, .082 ISO, and patience, 7.2% BB-rate, regressed noticeably. He also hit a large amount of groundballs — never a positive sign — too, at 46.6%.

Projection: Cuthbert and Boston Red Sox shortstop wunderkind Xander Bogaerts were the only 19-year-olds in the Carolina League last season. So despite the noticeable drop in production, there’s still plenty of room for optimism. The organization is likely to have him repeat the level where better results are sure to follow. The groundball rate, however, is still troubling.

Ceiling: 2.5-win player

#14. Cameron Gallagher, Age: 20, Position: C

Kansas City has several promising young catchers filling the lower levels of the system, and Gallagher, the organization’s second round pick in 2011, being the best.

As a 19-year-old in the Appalachian League, Gallagher showed a solid offensive game, walking in 7.2% of the time, with solid contact skills and average power. His overall line is solid, not spectacular, at .276/.331/.425. But it was good enough for 10% better than the league average.

Defensively, he nabbed only six of the would-be 23 base stealers (26%).

Projection: It’s still very early in Gallagher’s development. Unlike his peers in older levels, there’s not a lot of data to analyze yet. Still, his approach seems sound for now, and it’s likely the team bumps him up to A-ball next season, where we’ll get a better picture. The tools seem to be there for him to develop into an offensive-minded catcher, though.

Ceiling: 2.0-win player

#15. Patrick Leonard, Age: 20, Position: 3B

Leonard, the team’s fifth round pick in 2011, mashed during his debut season, hitting .251/.340/.494 while finishing with the fourth highest homerun total, 14, in all of the domestic rookie leagues. His overall production was 27% above the league average.

Leonard showed an above-average approach at the plate, walking in 11.2% of his plate appearances, while posting a modest K-rate, 20.5%, too.

Projection: The initial return on the Royals’ investment is quite favorable. At an age appropriate level, Leonard proved to be one of the better offensive prospects. He shows a well-rounded toolset with above-average power, despite transitioning to wood bats for the first time in his career. He could easily surpass Cuthbert as the team’s top third base prospect following 2013.

Ceiling: 2.0-win player, a conservative estimate until more data is available

#16, Chad Johnson, Age: 19, Position: C

One of the benefits for the earlier draft signing deadline is the ability to see that year’s picks perform in a reasonable amount of games, like Johnson, who was nabbed in the fifth round of this year’s draft. Overall, he hit .260/.384/.382 in 150 plate appearances, walking in an incredible 26 of them.

Projection: Very, very limited data is available — obviously. But Johnson has adapted well to the professional game. He’s likely due for a repeat in one of the organization’s rookie leagues in 2013. One of the things to watch for is the groundball rate, which was nearly 50% in 2012.

Ceiling: Too soon to tell

This year the Indians’ prospects took a developmental step forward. Francisco Lindor showed the tools to become an above-average starting shortstop. Dorssys Paulino, the team’s top international signing in 2011, dominated in rookie ball. And several other players made strides as well.

But this is still a weak system. One that’s almost entirely dependent upon its young Latin talent, some of which showed some serious plate discipline issues. And the organization, while adding upside high school hurlers Mitch Brown and Kieran Lovegrove through the draft, did so by using the saved money from first rounder Tyler Naquin, who was a reach.

Notes: All the listed ages are what the player will be as of July 1, 2013. A lot of amateur site have a tendency to recycle the same scouting reports available from the well-respected sources within the industry, without adding anything to the overall picture. Any mechanical observations are of my own. Overall rankings are based mainly on numerical data, sans in a few areas (like LeVon Washington, where I went with my gut and experience as a collegiate ballplayer and video scout during my time with Baseball Info Solutions).

2013 Cleveland Indians Top Prospects:

#1.Francisco Lindor, Age: 19, Position: SS

After only five games in low-A in 2011, the Indians aggressively — and uncharacteristically for the organization — pushed Lindor to A-ball last season, where he more than held his own as the youngest player in the league, hitting .257/.352/.355. According to Weighted Runs Created Plus, his total offensive production was 2% better than the league average.

Photo Courtesy of the Lake County Sentinel

Despite being only 18 at the time, Lindor showed an advanced approach at the plate, walking in nearly 11% of his plate appearances and striking out just 13.8% of the time. He showed above-average speed — 28 stolen bases — but could stand to improve on his technique and approach. His power — .098 ISO — isn’t as developed as his other tools, but should ultimately improve to at least league average, though he’ll need to get more loft under his swing; he had a 53.3% groundball rate.

He’ll likely start the year in High-A and could end it with a cup of coffee in Akron.

Projection: Lindor’s one of the games top young talents, and arguably the second best shortstop prospect behind Texas’ Jurickson Profar. He’s a top-of-the-order-type hitter — most likely a number two — who could ultimately end up as a .290/.350/.400, with 25+ steals, double digit homeruns and above-average defense.

Ceiling: 4- to 5-win player

#2.Dorssys Paulino, Age: 18, Position: SS

Paulino, Cleveland’s top international signing in 2011, dominated the rookie level competition, hitting .355/.404/.610 while showing good power and speed, and a decent approach at the plate (8.0% BB% and 16.5% K%). The Indians promoted him to low-A for a 15-game stint, where he became the youngest player in the league, and continued to perform well (.271/.306/.407).

Lindor’s the heir apparent to the shortstop job at the big league level, so Paulino, who committed 25 errors this season, will eventually be moved to another position, maybe third or the outfield.

Projection: Paulino’s offensive ceiling is higher than Lindor’s — particularly his power — and could ultimately become the team’s top prospect. But he’s going to have to show a similar approach and better defense as he moves up the minor league ladder. He could develop into a middle-of-the-order-type hitter, capable of possessing a plus-hit tool.

Ceiling: 4-win player

#3. LeVon Washington, Age: 21, Position: OF

Since being drafted in the second round in 2010, Washington was aggressively pushed to A-ball in his first season — where struggled but showed some offensive promise — and was limited to just 13 games in 2012.

But despite the underperformance and subsequent lost 2012, Washington has as much offensive upside as any player not named Paulino or Lindor. Washington possesses an extremely short, quick stroke with double-digit homerun potential, a strong eye at the plate, and could be the fastest runner in the system.

Projection: Despite the two lost seasons, Washington could be poised to make the largest gains as any prospect in the system come 2013. He doesn’t have the arm to play center field and will likely be pushed to left field sometime in the very near future. I remain quite bullish on his overall potential; something around a 3- to 4-win player.

Ceiling: 3.5-win player

#4. Luigi Rodriguez, Age: 20, Position: CF

He’s quite an intriguing prospect, possessing a strong eye at the plate (9.6%), blossoming power (he nearly quadrupled his homerun output this season with 11), and above-average or better speed. His overall offensive production was 9% better than the league average, this despite being one of only 11 players younger than 20 in the Midwest League.

Projection: He’s not quite a blue-chipper, but Rodriguez is a B/B+ prospect capable of developing into a solid leadoff hitter. And if his power continues to blossom — which isn’t a given because of his smallish frame (5’11” and 160 pounds) — he could develop into a lower tier middle of the lineup hitter.

Ceiling: 3-win player

#5. Jesus Aguilar, Age: 23, Position: 1B

Arguably the top power-hitting prospect in Cleveland’s farm system, Aguilar followed up his breakout 2011 season with another solid showing in 2012, hitting .277/.365/.454 before his promotion to Double-A.

His in-game power doesn’t grade out as a plus-tool, but it’s certainly above-average. And he couples that with an above-average eye at the plate — he walked in over 11% of his plate appearances this season — and reasonable strikeout totals (22%).

He’ll begin the year back in Akron and has potentially positioned himself as a September call up.

Projection: Aguilar turns 23 before mid-season, and the fact that he hasn’t seen an extended look at Double-A dulls his prospect shine a bit. With that being said, he profiles as a player capable of hitting .260/.330/.450 with 20- to 25-homerun potential.

Ceiling: 3-win player

#6. Giovanni Soto, Age: 22, Position: LHP

Soto’s a bit underrated. At 21-years-old and in Double-A for the first time, he tossed 121.1 solid innings and posted some strong peripherals — 7.42 K/9 and 3.63 BB/9 — to go along with a 3.93 ERA, despite being one of only three 21-year-old in the Eastern League.

He’s tall and lanky — 6’3” and 180 pounds — with room to fill out and has shown a strong feel for pitching throughout his career. He’s posted solid K-rates throughout his career — 8.1 K/9 — and generated a groundball rate higher than 50% in 2012.

Projection: Soto’s the type of pitcher that typically flies under the radar because he’s not dominating but performs well enough against much older competition to suggest that he could carve out a role in the middle of a rotation. He’s turns 22 in May and could probably more than hold his own at Triple-A, the land of the Quad-A players. But the Indians may play it safe and have him start the year back with Akron. He has the ceiling of a solid number three, but could ultimately settle as a decent backend option for the Tribe’s rotation as soon as 2014.

Ceiling: 2.0- to 2.5-win player

#7. Tyler Naquin, Age: 22, Position: CF

The Indians reached for Naquin in the first round, drafting the former Aggie with the 15^th overall pick. At the time I wrote: But, for now, the Indians have Naquin, a solid high-floor, low-ceiling prospect who’s probably going to settle in around a quality fourth outfielder or starter on a non-contending team, and probably has a ceiling of a .270/.330/.420 hitter.

And through his first 161 plate appearances in pro ball, Naquin has pretty much been just that, hitting .270/.379/.380, showing more patience and less power.

The Indians will likely start him to Lake County — A-ball — to start the season and could aggressively push him through the system given his polished collegiate background.

Projection: Nothing’s really changed. Naquin still looks like a fringe everyday player who will likely settle into a quality fourth outfielder. He’s willing to walk (10.6%), has a rifle in center field, good speed and below-average power.

Ceiling: 2.0- 2.5-win player

#8. Danny Salazar, Age: 23, Position: RHP

Salazar put together a strong 2012 split between High-A and Double-A, posting a 2.36 ERA in 22 starts with solid peripherals (7.8 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9). Unlike Soto, Salazar’s a year older and did most of his damage against a more age appropriate level of competition.

Salazar’s also had some elbow issues earlier in his career — he underwent Tommy John surgery in 2010 which cost him a year of development — and the Indians are slowly bringing him back up to speed. He’s only topped 100 innings once in his career and likely will peak at about 120 to 130 in 2013.

Projection: He’s a solid middle-tier prospect who could develop into a decent #3, maybe even a fringe #2, or a dominant backend reliever. The 2013 season will go a long way in determining whether his frame — 6’0” and 190 pounds — can handle the rigors of starting. Salazar does, however, have the potential to move up the prospect charts as anyone in the system.

Ceiling: 2.0- to 2.5 win player, if he remains as a starter

#9. Tony Wolters, Age: 21, Position: 2B

Wolters is a personal favorite of mine, the type of scrappy player that typically gets everything — and then some — out of his God-given talent. He’s a dirt bag…but in a good way.

The Indians have aggressively pushed their young — particularly middle-infield — talent in the lower levels of the minor leagues, and he’s no different. Like Giovanny Urshela and Ronny Rodriguez, Wolters’ final triple-slash line — .260/.320/.404 — isn’t particularly noteworthy until you consider the level of competition: all three players were two years younger than the average Carolina League hitter, each being one of ten players under the age of 21.

Wolters isn’t as physically gifted as many of the other middle-infielders in the system, but he does a lot of things well enough. He’s shown a strong eye at the plate (7.81% BB%), which could improve as he matures, average power, and decent speed.

Projection: Based on pure talent alone, Wolters should probably develop into a solid utility player or a fringe everyday second baseman a la Darwin Barney of the Chicago Cubs. But, again, he’s the type that could easily develop into a solid three-win player. Don’t sleep on him.

Ceiling: 3-win player

#10. Jose Ramirez, Age: 20, Position: 2B

Ramirez put together a remarkably quiet, impressive campaign for the Captains in 2012, hitting .354/.403/.462 with 15 stolen bases and 20 extra base hits. His offensive production, 45% better than the league’s average, was tied for fourth best, despite being one of only 13 players under the age of 20.

He’s relatively small in stature — 5’9” and 165 pounds — so that could limit his overall power potential and may ultimately cause some problems as he moves up the ladder.

Projection: There’s a lot to like here. He showed a willingness to walk — 7.7% — for a young player in an advanced league; enough speed to become a 15- to 20-stolen base threat, and according to the raw, albeit unreliable defensive data available for minor leaguers, the chops to remain at second base. I’m a bit bearish on his size, so for now I’ll say he looks like a fringe everyday player, but he’ll certainly be a player to watch in 2013.

Ceiling: 1.5- to 2.0-win player

#11. Ronny Rodriguez, Age: 21, Position: SS

Whereas fellow shortstops Lindor and Paulino show a more complete offensive approach, Rodriguez relied heavily on his power, socking 43 extra-base hits in 2012. The lone red flag for Rodriguez’s offensive game — and it’s a glaring one at this point — has been his complete lack of plate discipline throughout his two years in the minors, though it did show a slight increase this season, jumping from 3.3%  to 3.9% (walk rate). And despite finishing third in the league with 19 homeruns, he was just 5% better than the league average overall.

Ronny Rodriguez (Photo Courtesy of Mark Briscoe via Flickr.com)

Projection: He’s still young enough to show some improvement — he was two years younger than the average hitter in the Carolina League — but it would take a drastic turnaround in either his walk rate or porous defense for him to develop into an above-average MLB regular. He could kind of fall into that Quad-A territory eventually or decent platoon player; he’s a .308/.333/.621 hitter against lefties in his  career.

Ceiling: 1.5- to 2.0-win player

#12. Chen-Chang Lee, Age: 26, RHP

Lee’s been remarkably consistent throughout his four-year tenure in the Cleveland organization, posting solid strikeout and walk rates all the way up the ladder. Unfortunately, Lee lost the majority of 2012 due to Tommy John surgery.

Projection: He’s already 26 and was probably ready for the big leagues near the end of 2010. With that being said, assuming there aren’t any career threatening setbacks during the end of his recovery, he’ll likely earn a brief call up with the big league team near the middle of the season before shutting him down. He’s still a dominant backend reliever waiting in the wings.

Ceiling: 0.5- to 1.0-win player

#13. Mitch Brown, Age: 19, Position: RHP

Brown was an overdraft signing in the second round, agreeing to $800,000, more than $140,000 allotted for the pick.

In 27+ brief innings in rookie ball, Brown was pretty much what you would expect: averaging nearly a strikeout per inning, average-ish walk rates, and a fairly strong feel for pitching. The Indians are typically cautious with young arms, so he’s likely to begin the year in low-A or maybe even a repeat in rookie.

Projection: There’s hardly any data available to accurately assess his future, but the returns so far are pretty positive. Mechanically, he drives well off his bag leg — almost reminiscent of Roy Oswalt — and creates a tremendous amount of arm speed. Barring any type of injury, there’s no reason that he shouldn’t be the best pitching prospect in the system by the end of the season.

Ceiling: Too early to tell.

#14. Bryce Stowell, Age: 26, Position: RHP

Big, big time strikeouts have become rather commonplace for Stowell, who’s averaged more than 12.3 punch outs per nine innings throughout his professional career. Unfortunately, he just can’t seem to stay healthy enough over the last two seasons to force the front office in giving him a shot at the big league level. Since the start of 2011, the 6’2” right-hander has thrown just 67.2 innings.

Projection: Stowell’s command seems to come and go at times, which isn’t as much of a concern now because he continues to pile up the strikeouts. It did take a noticeable step forward in 2012, averaging just 2.79 BB/9. He could be a dark-house candidate for a shot with the big league bullpen coming out of spring training. Long term: Stowell still has the potential to be a very good backend reliever, perhaps even becoming the best on the staff.

#15. Scott Barnes, Age: 25, Position: LHP

Acquired in the Ryan Garko trade to San Francisco in the summer of 2009, the Indians finally gave up on the idea of using Barnes as a starter in 2012, converting him to a fulltime reliever. And like some of the better relievers in the system, he posted impressive K-rates in 2012 (11.60 K/9).

Mechanically, Barnes is a mess, but the herky-jerkiness of it all works for him. He’s got an above-average left-handed fastball — it averaged 91.8 MPH with the Indians — and two decent secondary pitches (slider and changeup).

Projection: Barnes is the type of guy that could carve out a 10-year career in the bullpen. He won’t be dominant at the big league level, but lefties that can average 8 K/9 are pretty rare.

Ceiling: 0.5-win player

#16. Anthony Santander, Age: 18, Position: OF

As a very toolsy 17-year-old, Satander dominated the Arizona Summer League competition during his first year in pro ball, batting .305/.381/.494.

The Venezuelan outfielder, who signed with Cleveland as a 16-year-old for $385,000 in 2011, is a switch-hitter that showed five-tool promise last season, hitting for both average and power (.188 ISO), showing a bit of speed, swiping six bags, playing solid defense in the corners and making four assists.

Projection: Santander did enough to warrant a promotion to low-A, possibly even to A-ball, next season. He’s young, 18, has plenty of projection left in his 6-foot-2 frame, and showed a decent eye at the plate last season. At this point, though it’s still very early in his career, Santander has a shot at developing into an everyday player.

Ceiling: 2.0-win player

#17. Thomas Neal, Age: 25, Position: OF

Neal turned in another quietly underrated season with the Aeros in 2012, hitting .314/.400/.467 with 12 homeruns and 11 stolen bases. His total offensive production was 44% better than the league average, the second best mark in the Eastern League.

Projection: Neal’s five-tool-lite. Meaning, he does everything: double-digit speed and power, a solid-average bat, positional versatility, and a reasonably strong arm. The problem, however, is neither of them are plus tools. Solid across the board, sure, they’re just not enough to make him into an above-average regular. Like Cord Phelps, the Indians had a black hole in left field during a lost season and, yet, they never gave Neal the shot to at least earn a back role for 2013.

Ceiling: 1.0- to 1.5-win player

#18. Geovanny Urshela, Age: 21, Position: 3B

The 2012 season was a bit of a breakout year for Urshela, who hit .278/.309/.446 with 14 homeruns. Similar to that of his shortstop counterpart, Ronny Rodriguez, Urshela’s lack of plate discipline is equally as troubling. In 475 plate appearances with the Mudcats, the young third baseman managed to walk just 16 times (3.6%).

His power started blossoming this season and his defense made significant strides as well, but his walk rates — or lack thereof — really hinder his overall potential.

Projection: Like Rodriguez, there’s still plenty of time for Urshela to learn the nuances of the strike zone. But at this point in their careers it’s usually the anomaly, not the rule. Right now, he profiles as another Quad-A-type player.

Ceiling: 1.5- to 2.0-win player

#19. Shawn Armstrong, Age: 22, Position: RHP

Armstrong made stops at three levels this season, pitching briefly in Lake County before being promoted Carolina for a 26-game stint and finishing up with 20 innings in Akron. All along the way, Armstrong showed tremendous K-rates — at least 9.7 K/9 at each of the stops — but well below-average walk rates.

Projection: The Indians, among any of positional prospects, have not been shy about moving relievers quickly through the system, sans Chen-Chang Lee of course. And Armstrong seems to be on the Cody Allen-type trajectory, but his command issues will certainly limit his overall ceiling. Still, he’s only 22 and has been absolutely dominating in his first full pro season.

Ceiling: 0.5-win player

#20. Cord Phelps, Age: 26, Position: 2B

I’ve been critical — very critical, actually — of the Indians’ refusal to give Phelps regular playing time at the big league, despite owning a career .285/.374/.438 Triple-A line, the team having nothing else to lose in a lost season, and his ability to handle both lefties and righties.

Cord Phelps (Photo Courtesy of Official Columbus Clippers via Flickr.com)

Projection: He’s certainly not an everyday player — his defense is still below-average by all accounts — but at the very least he could be a useful bat off the bench. And certainly more valuable than giving someone like Jose Lopez 200 PAs.

Ceiling: 1.0-win player

#21. Elvis Araujo, Age: 21, Position: LHP

Huge left-hander: 6’6” and 215 pounds. He’s lost quite a bit of time due to injury earlier in his career — he didn’t pitch in 2010 and 2011. Like many of the organization’s top hurlers, Araujo, too, suffered from more than a fair share of bad luck. His ERA, 5.00, is more than one full run higher than his FIP (3.72).

He’s probably bound for High-A to start the 2013 season.

Projection: Araujo’s size and age immediately make him an intriguing prospect. Right now he’s more projection than results, but if his K-rates can improve, or at least maintain, as he moves up the ladder he could be an interesting arm to watch. He’s probably a backend starter or reliever now, but has the potential to become a solid mid-rotation arm.

Ceiling: 1.0-win player

#22. Dillon Howard, Age: 21, Position: RHP

Out the outside, Howard’s 2012 season was a lost cause as he finished with a 7.90 ERA and a 1-7 record. However, a lot of that can be blamed on bad luck, namely a ridiculously high BABIP (.411) and an equally ridiculous strand rate (40.3%). Otherwise, his peripherals were decent, not great (7.68 K/9 and 3.95 BB/9).

Projection: Much like Brown, Cleveland 2012 second rounder, there isn’t a whole lot of data available for Howard. He’s going to improve by large strides in 2013, if not fundamentally at least through regression. After the season, we’ll have a much clearer picture of his future, though he’ll turn 21 this season and has just 41 career innings under his belt.

Ceiling: Too early to tell.

#23. Felix Sterling, Age: 20, Position: RHP

After flat out dominating the rookie league early in the season, the Indians pushed Sterling to A-ball, curiously skipping low-A.

He predictably struggled in 93 innings of work, posting an unsightly 5.42 FIP. On the positive side, however, he did show decent peripherals — 6.87 K/9 and 3.87 BB/9 — and was done in by, unsurprisingly, some bad luck; he had the lowest — and completely unsustainable — strand rate, 50.8%, in the Midwest.

Projection: The Indians could opt to keep Sterling in A-ball in 2013, where he’d be about a year younger the average pitcher. But I’d be in favor of pushing him up to High-A, given his peripherals and the general attrition rate of young pitchers. Long term, it’s still too early to see where he fits in. We should have a better picture after 2013.

Ceiling: 0.5- to 1.0-win player

#24. Jake Lowery, Age: 22, Position: C

Short, squat lefty-swinging catcher, Lowery was the organization’s fourth round pick out of James Madison Univrsity in 2011. He split his time between A- and High-A in 2012, showing a tremendous eye at both levels and impressive power, at least with the Captains.

Overall, he hit .232/.332/.397. But he did walk in more than 13% of his total plate appearances and threw out just shy of 30% of potential base threats.

Projection: He’s far more polished than other Tribe catching prospects and could develop into a semi-starter at the big league level. Throughout his professional career, he hasn’t shown any major issues versus left-handers either (.246/.370/.463).

Ceiling: 1.0-win player

#25. Jordan Smith, Age: 22, Position: RF

Big — 6’4” and 205-pound – outfielder that’s been a pleasant mid-round surprise through two years in professional ball.

Smith, a ninth round pick in the 2011 draft, hit .316/.367/.453 in an age appropriate level (A-ball). He showed the inkling of being a semi-complete offensive hitter: a decent eye, average power, some speed and solid contact rates. But, again, this all comes with a caveat: he’s a polished collegiate player.

Projection: Smith could develop into a useful platoon bat/role player off the bench — he hit .317/.365/.478 against right-handers in 2012 — and for ninth round pick, particularly of the Indians, is already a success. There’s plenty projection left given his size too. He’s one to watch.

Ceiling: 1.0-win

#26. T.J. Mcfarland, Age: 24, Position: LHP

Mcfarland’s command really took a step forward in 2012, walking just 12 batters in 60 innings with Akron and 33 in 102.2 innings with Columbus. He’s slowly, methodically climbed his way through the farm system and could make his debut when injuries hit the Indians at some point in 2013.

Projection: Despite making his Triple-A debut at the age of 23, Mcfarland’s peak — absolute peak — is a fifth starter and will likely settle into a bullpen role. He’s never shown good strikeout totals, and the fact that it plunged to 4.82 K/9 with Columbus is definitely a red flag. On the plus side, he does generate a lot of groundballs (56% since 2011).

Ceiling: 0.5- to 1.0-win player

#27. Chun-Hsiu Chen, Age: 24, Position: C/1B

I’ve seen enough tape on Chen to know that his overall numbers in his career — .282/.367/.441 — are clouded by slider-type bat speed. And the fact that his power nearly evaporated in his second stint in Double-A — .118 ISO — is also a major red flag.

With that being said, he’s always shown a great eye, and with some experience behind the plate certainly doesn’t hurt his long term prospects either.

Projection: He could easily fall into the Cord Phelps-type role in the Indians organization, which in itself is unfortunate. It looks like he’s no longer a catcher and unless his power reemerges he’s nothing more than a solid minor league bat.

Ceiling: Replacement level to 0.5-win player

#28. Ordomar Valdez, Age: 19, Position: 2B

A very intriguing switch-hitting prospect, Valdez showed an incredible eye at the plate in the Dominican Summer League, walking in more than 15% of his plate appearances. Overall, he hit .284/.403/.339 with 25 stolen bases (in 62 games).

Projection: The lack of power — .055 ISO — is already a concern, and the fact that he’s only 5’9” and 150 pounds doesn’t dispel any of those concerns either. It will be interesting to see where Valdez starts the year — he could potentially skip low-A depending how the rest of the middle-infielders shake out – but if he can maintain an above-average BB-rate than he’s already assured himself of a future utility role, however brief it may or may not be.

Ceiling: 0.5-win to 1.0-player

#29. Kieran Lovegrove, Age: 18, RHP

The big, tall right-hander with plenty of projection was selected in the third round of the 2012 draft.

Like Brown and Howard, there isn’t enough data available on Lovegrove to draw any serious conclusions, but the early returns are reasonably favorable: 7.71 K/9 and 3.86 BB/9 in 21 innings of work.

Projection: He was quite unlucky — his FIP, 3.53, was almost 2.5 runs lower than his ERA — so he should show some signs of progress next season just through regression.

Ceiling: Too soon to tell

#30. Mason Radeke, Age: 23, Position: RHP

Radeke, a 35^th round pick in the 2011 draft out of Cal Poly, became a swing-man in last season, making a total of 31 appearances, 13 of which were starts.

The right-hander dominated A-ball competition, averaging 9.6 K/9 and just 2.0 BB/9. He made a three-appearance cameo with Akron and could begin the year with them in 2013.

Projection: Despite the sparkling peripherals, Radeke profiles best as a big league middle reliever. As a former collegiate player, he performed up to par against the A-ball competition and will likely be challenged far more against upper levels.

Ceiling: Replacement level to 0.5-win player

#31. Alex Monsalve, Age: 21, Position: C

In three seasons in the system, Monsalve has made small developments in his overall game at each stop along the way. He showed an improved eye (7.3%), better power (.138 ISO), and better overall offensive production; he was 4% above the league average while with the Captains in 2012.

Projection: Cleveland’s relatively deep with decent catching prospects, and Monsalve’s just another example. He doesn’t have one standout tool, but does everything well enough. He could develop into a solid big league backup down the line.

Ceiling: Replacement level to 0.5-win

#32. T.J. House, Age: 23, Position: LHP

There’s not a whole lot that separates House and fellow left-hander Mcfarland. Both shown solid or better control, won’t overpower hitters — House averaged 6.51 K with Akron — and have slowly climbed through the farm system. House, however, hasn’t generated the type of groundballs that Mcfarland does that could help compensate for low K-rates.

Projection: House’s ultimate ceiling falls short of Mcfarland’s, mainly because he doesn’t generate a large amount of groundballs. If everything breaks right, he could be a decent bullpen arm, though.

Ceiling: Replacement Level

First, they inked right-hander — and 2012 Tommy John recipient — Scott Bakerto a one year, $5.5 million incentive-laden deal. Prior to the surgery, Baker was one of the more solid mid-rotation starters in baseball, averaging just over three wins above replacement since 2007.

Photo Courtesy of Keith Allison via Flickr.com

And on Thursday word filtered out the team came to terms with former All-Star catcher Dioner Navarro. The deal, which was originally suspected to be of the minor league variety, is for one year and $1.75 million.

On the onset, it seems a bit much for a player that spent all but 24 games in Triple-A, let alone one that has hit a combined .215/.270/.323 since 2009. But this deal could end up as a solid buy for the organization, reminding everyone the type of prowess Theo Epstein and company showed in Boston.

Navarro’s fallen quite a bit since his 2008 All-Star season, when his offensive production was 5% above the league average. But a lot of Navarro’s struggles can seemingly be shouldered on bad luck, namely low BABIPs.

Since 2005, he’s had three normal BABIP years — years in which it was close to the league average (.290ish) — and four years that fall more than 40 points below it. And in the years close to the league average — 2005, 2006 and 2008 — he’s hit .278/.345/.385. Otherwise, he’s hit .214/.274/.327 (2007, 2009, 2010 and 2011). Last season, 2012, was ignored because he received only 69 PAs.

Now it’s pretty difficult given his up-and-down BABIP track record to know exactly where his true talent level is, but the Cubs front office is gambling that it’s not the player who’s shown low BABIPs in shorter sample sizes. And that seems reasonable. His walk rates are decent — 7.6% in his career — and he doesn’t hit a ton of groundballs either (41.4%). Granted, he doesn’t hit for a lot of power — .111 ISO.

This is smart buy-low option for the Cubs. They sign a player that has potentially been plagued by a lot of bad luck that has the upside somewhere close to a league average starter — if everything works out well. If not, it’s less than $2 million wasted.

Photo Courtesy of SGrantDC via Flickr.com

Immediately, this trade thrusts the Blue Jays into contention in the already loaded AL East. And it allows the Blue Jays to acquire several above-average or better players without having to overpay them to move north of the border. Needless to say, this type of gamble with its hefty price tag could end the career of GM Alex Anthopoulos rather quickly if it turns sour.

Reyes, 29, still has several prime years left in his career, but his recent history of injury-marred seasons — 2012 was the first year he topped more than 134 games since 2008 — forces Toronto to assume some of the long term risks the Marlins gambled on just last season.

He’s still owed $96 million (including the $4 million buyout) through the end of 2017. Assuming he averages 4.5 wins for the next three years, followed by two four-win seasons, Reyes should be worth just under $125 million. And as long as he doesn’t lose too many games to injury during that time, the Blue Jays should come out ahead with his contract.

Buehrle’s no longer a number two, but more of a solid three or four. His K-rate spiked last season in his first and only in the in NL and should regress back to somewhere in the high 4.00s next season. He has three years and $48 million left and should come close to equaling, if not slightly exceeding, that much in term of his on field production. Durability does have value.

Johnson, who turns 29 in January, rebounded nicely after missing most of 2011 due to shoulder inflammation, though he did show some signs of regression. His strikeout rate — 7.76 K.9 — was his lowest since 2006, and his walk rate — 3.06 BB/9 — the highest since 2007.

He’s only signed for 2013, so the risk is minimal at this point. And at the very worst, assuming that he’s healthy, he should not have a problem matching his four-win season next year.

Buck, who is owed $6 million in 2013, is coming off of the worst season of his career, hitting just .192/.297/.347 in 398 plate appearances. He’s a fringe everyday player at this point, but draws a decent amount of walks — 11.1% since 2011 — and hits for enough to power to be a useful bat off the bench.

Bonifacio, much to his credit, has developed into a solid everyday player, though he may be better suited for a super-utility role. He’ll likely start the year at second for the Jays and could serve as a decent number two or nine hitter who’s willing to take a walk.

Going the other way are Yunel Escobar, Adeiny Hechavarria, Henderson Alvarez, Justin Nicolino, Anthony DeSclafani and Jake Marisnick.

Escobar ‘s showed flashes of being an All-Star-type performer in the past, but he’s sandwiched a solid 2011 showing with two disappointing seasons. Toronto was gnawing at the bit to deal the starting shortstop — homophobic slurs will do that to a player — and is still young enough, 30, to have two or three solid seasons.

Hechavarria is a plus-defender at short, but his bat likely won’t develop into anything close to league average. Historically, he’s shown below-average plate discipline in the minors, which doesn’t bode well for his offensive success at the big league level. At best, he’s maybe a 2.5-win player.

Alvarez posted the lowest K-rate, 3.80 K/9, in baseball. He’s still young enough (22), generates a lot of groundballs (57% in 2012) and has shown better strikeout numbers in the minors. And like Buerhle, he should see an uptick just moving to the NL. He could develop into a decent number four or just as easily end up in the bullpen, and it’s all going to come down to the Ks.

Nicolo is a young left-hander that shown a fairly advanced feel for pitching. In 124.1 innings in A-ball this season, he averaged nearly one punch out per inning while walking just 21. He’s got front-of-the-rotation-type potential. But he definitely has to get past the injury nexus. And don’t be surprised if Miami pushes him to Double-A early in 2013.

DeSclafini was the Jays’ sixth round pick in 2011 out of the University of Florida. He’s a solidly built right-hander who was bit old, 22, for A-ball. He showed solid command, which isn’t a surprise given his polished collegiate background, but his lack of strikeouts, 6.7 K/9, is already a concern. He’s a lower mid-level prospect at best.

I wrote about Marisnick way back in February as a prospect to watch, writing that his peak could be a “solid .290/.340/.460 hitter.”

He held his own in High-A this year (.263/.349/.451 and his total production was 27% better than the league average), but struggled quite a bit in a 55-game stint in Double-A (.233/.286/.336). He’s still young, 21, and needs another repeat at Double-A. But the tools — solid eye, good pop, and speed — are there. I’m still a believer.

In the end,the Blue Jays gave up two solid prospects — Nicolo and Marisnick — but acquired enough help, both short and long term, to help them contend in the tough AL East without taking on any unreasonable contracts. And don’t underestimate how difficult it’s been historically for Toronto to sign premier free agents either.

As for the Marlins, well, this could be far more reaching than a lot of people may think. Sure, they shed a ton of payroll. But after signing Reyes, Buerhle, Heath Bell and manager Ozzie Guillen last season and subsequently dealing them. Why the hell would a free agent — or even a younger player — want to sign with this team, this ownership?

Update: I just saw Jeff Mathis was included in the deal. He’s an all-glove, no bat backstop. This year he hit .218/.249/.393, and according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, it was the best offensive season of his career, despite being 30% below the league average. 

Photo Courtesy of artolog via Flickr.com

Considering how high the Dodgers set the bar for signing serviceable but replaceable relievers, the Giants did well enough in keeping the total amount far more reasonable, though they could still end up overpaying by as much as $10 million.

Affeldt, 33, turned in the best relief season of his 11-year career, totaling just over one win above replacement to go along with a 2.70 ERA and his best strikeout rate — 8.10 K/9 — since 2008. He was, however, quite lucky in terms of homeruns allowed — 0.14 HR/9 — and he’s a strong candidate to regress once that total normalizes next season.

And despite the unfortunate track record of odd injuries — he missed 19 games because of a laceration from separating frozen hamburgers and another 13 from a minor knee injury caused by his kid — Affeldt’s been rather durable since becoming a full-time reliever, pitching at least 50 innings every year since 2007.

He did lose nearly 2MPH on his fastball this season, but he relied less on that — he threw it only 58.6%, down 71.4% of the time only two seasons prior — and compensated by throwing his splitter more than 13% of the time. He’s also helped himself by continuing to improve his walk rates over the last three seasons as well.

Assuming he averages about 0.5 fWAR per season over the life of his contract — a reasonable amount given his past three year track record of 0.1, 0.1, and 1.1 — he’ll be worth about $8 million. And that’s assuming he won’t lose any significant time to injury.

Either way, though, the Giants overpaid. Or underpaid if your using the Dodgers’ economic plans.

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Ross, who turns 36 in March, is coming off of another solid season, batting .256/.321/.449 to go along with solid defense in limited action.  And despite getting less than 200 plate appearances every year since 2009 he’s hit a combined .269/.353/.463 and his total offensive production, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, has been 22% better than the league average.

His BABIPs have been remarkably high for an aging catcher –.347 over the past four seasons — which may lead to one of those opposite fluky sub-.260 seasons, but his secondary skills — power and walk rates — are solid enough so that even in a down year he could still remain at least semi-productive.

And by adding another solid backstop — to go along with incumbent starter Jarrod Saltalamacchia and rookie Ryan Lavarnway — the Red Sox have created an enviable situation, providing the option to deal one of the two latter players or push Saltalamacchia to first base.

Like Ross, Saltalamacchia is relatively underrated, perhaps masked by the failure to live up to his hyped prospect status, low batting averages or high strikeout rates. He’s definitely valuable, especially as a catcher. But his bat could play at first base too, a position of need for the Sox.

On the surface, Saltalamacchia’s been the same performer over the last two seasons, posting wRC+ totals of 94 and 95 respectively. But this season his walk rate jumped rather noticeably — from 6.2% in 2011 to 8.5%, a number similar to his career total — and his BABIP dropped to .265, more the 40 points below his norm. So, despite what appears to be a lateral step from one season to the next, Boston could reasonably expect him to be an above-average performer next year as his BABIP bounces back. And given his power potential — he could very easily top 30 homeruns next season — he could potentially be a three- to four-win first baseman next season. The only issue may be his performance against lefties (.203/.256/.335).

Update: HardBallTalk’s Craig Calcaterra makes an interesting observation: Jerry Sands mashers left-handers. Meaning, of course, that Boston could potentially keep all three catchers and make one helluva platoon at first with Sands and Saltalamacchia. 

This, of course, would push Lavarnway into everyday action — finally.

In parts of two seasons in Triple-A, he’s hit a combined .295/.382/.511 with solid power and a plus-eye. And he should develop into at least a two-win player, maybe more.

And if the Sox aren’t comfortable enough to go with either Saltalamacchia at first or Lavarnway behind the plate, they could always deal one of them for so help in other areas.

Even way, though, signing Ross should prove to quite the prudent move for Boston.

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For attempted humor, snarky comments, and baseball updates follow the site on Twitter, @ReleasePoints.

Or if you’re at work or just looking to kill more time check out the site’s homepage here or the Archives tab here.