Center Field

Admittedly, it’s rather difficult to project Grady Sizemore, a player who once seemed destined to rank among the game’s elite for a decade or so.  Sure, to the naked eye he looked explosive – the type of player he was once – at times, especially during his first 11 games back (.378/.429/.822), but the overall numbers – and his injury history – tend to suggest otherwise.

Sizemore has missed 201 games since the start of 2010: two games for a lower back issue; 128 games two seasons ago and 14 additional games to start the 2011 due to microfracture knee surgery; 13 games because of a knee contusion, and 44 for a sports hernia.  He also underwent surgery on his non-problematic right knee in October.  Sizemore doesn’t turn 29 until late season, but he certainly has the body (read: knees) of someone much older.

Photo Courtesy of Keith Allison via Flickr.com

He played in 71 games in 2011, hit .224/.285/.422, and according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, was 12% below the league average.  Along with the other centerfielders – Fukudome (12 games), Brantley (49), Crowe (4), Ezequiel Carrera (50), and Travis Buck (1) – the group hit .248/.301/.384.  Outside of Sizemore’s power (10 homeruns), the rest hit 3 homerun in 465 plate appearances, good for a slugging percentage of .352.  In almost 80 plate appearances, Arizona starting pitcher Daniel Hudson posted a higher slugging percentage – by almost 20 points!

The position lacked plate discipline, power, solid base running skills (13 SB; nine CS), and suffered from slightly below-average defensive skills too, and was worth about 1.0 WAR.

So, what about 2012?  Or more specifically: What about Grady Sizemore in 2012?

Truthfully, Sizemore belongs anywhere but centerfield, maybe leftfield, maybe DH.  But with very little centerfield prospect depth in the minors, Brantley slated as the starting leftfielder and Carrera better suited for fourth- or fifth-outfielderdom, the Indians are relying heavily upon the creaky knees of Sizemore.  Sure, in almost half a season’s worth he displayed above-average pop, but he also showed very little else: his strikeout-to-walk ratio was 18-to-85, his walk rate was more than two percentage points below the league average and almost half that of his career mark through 2009, and he was cost the team almost 6 runs defensively (-5.8 UZR).

Obviously, the first and foremost concern with Sizemore is keeping him healthy and on the field.  And given his gritty, all-out style of play, centerfield should be the last spot he should occupy, but his eroding defensive skills may not cost the team all that much – if they play him in center field during certain games.

Sometime between the acquisition of Derek Lowe and the revelations about Roberto Hernandez Heredia, formerly known Fausto Carmona, the Indians expected to have three out the top eight groundball inducing starters last season, and four of the top 34 if Ubaldo Jimenez is included.  And taking it even further: Jimenez is a strikeout pitcher; his 8.6 SO/9 last season was the fourteenth highest total in baseball.  So, the Indians should have had three starting pitchers, who over the course of the last two seasons have thrown groundballs above a 55% clip and one starter who’s averaged nearly one strikeout every inning and throws groundballs at an above-average pace too.  Instead, assuming Carmona is lost for a significant portion of the season and newly acquired Kevin Slowey is his replacement, the team will now have three groundball starting pitchers and two extreme fly ball pitchers, Slowey and Josh Tomlin.

What does that mean?  Outfield defense – potentially – should play a very small role in three out of every five games, or the amount of times Sizemore should be starting in center field.

Now: offensively…

Sizemore was once, and not in the too distant past, a high on-base percentage guy:  he posted a .380 OBP and walked nearly 12.5% of the time between 2006 and 2008.  However, since 2009, he’s posted an injury-marred .280 OBP and walked in only 6.2% of his plate appearances.  And the rest of his offensive tools – speed and power – have declined in the same manner.

So, there are three reasonable projections, all of varying likelihood, for Sizemore in 2012:

1. He suddenly – and miraculously – regains his peak ability: a player worth about 5.5 wins above replacement.
2. He posts numbers similar to his 2009 (.248/.343/.443; 3.0 bWAR, and a wRC+ of 107), a season that seemed like a down year in what was destined to become a bright career but now appears to be a harbinger of bad things to come.
3. He continues to be hobbled by various injuries, struggles in most facets of the game, and posts a line similar to the past two seasons (.220/.280/.379).

Obviously, Option #1 seems highly unlikely now.  In two seasons he’s shown one glimpse – a mere two weeks – of his former self, and he promptly faded.  Yes, he’s closing in on two seasons removed from microfracture surgery – a highly risky operation with no guarantee of full recovery, and one that takes several years to recover from – but he’s also going to be 29 soon and the downward slope of his career will most assuredly be accelerated because of the injuries.  In fact, it is exceptionally unlikely that he ever regains his 5- or 6-WAR production again.

Option #2 is the most realistic ceiling for Sizemore moving forward. While the batting average is quite unsightly, his other numbers – on-base percentage and slugging percentage – are more acceptable.  For the first time since 2009, he showed power; his ISO, .198, was almost identical to his pre-injury career number, .210.  His decline in walk rate could be explained by lack of playing time: he missed more than 60% of two seasons; it’s reasonable to expect his plate discipline – an above-average to plus skill he’s displayed from the minors on up – to waver.  And given the amount of power he displayed in 2011 – his ISO would have ranked in the top 50 and in the top six for centerfielders last season had he qualified – pitchers are likely to be a little more cautious with him in 2012, also boosting his walk rate back towards his career norm.

Option #3 is, obviously, a worst case scenario, but given the lack of production from the position it wouldn’t be a hindrance.  Actually, it would be a push (assuming Carrera fills in).

So, the position, in all actuality, has a very real chance to improve by at least one win, perhaps as many as two.