Designated Hitter

Orginally presented on February 4 for the Cleveland chapter of SABR (Society of American Baseball Research), an in-depth player/positional analysis was performed to see how the 2012 Indians will fare.  This is part one of a 15 part series that will be released over the following two weeks.  The rest of the research/analysis can be found here

Designated Hitter

It’s been a long, arduous journey back from injury for Cleveland designated hitter Travis Hafner.  Hafner, the third best hitter in baseball from 2004 to 2006 according to Weighted Runs Created Plus, has quietly had back-to-back years of solid, albeit injury marred, seasons.

Since 2010 his wRC+, 123, is tied for 55th in baseball, 23-percent above the league average, ahead of players like Shane Victorino, Carlos Quentin, Ben Zobrist, and Michael Young, although those players played in far more games.  Still, it’s been a quiet rebound for Hafner, who’s finally providing some level of production for his team leading $13 million salary.

Photo Courtesy of Keith Allison via Flickr.com

Since 2008, he’s missed 199 games because of documented injuries, more than 30% of the team’s total games. And most of issues reside near or in his problematic right shoulder/upper back area.

Is he likely to top 500 plate appearance again?  No, probably not.  But he’s had back-to-back seasons of 368 and 462 plate appearances and during that time he was worth about three wins, one-and-a-half per year.

Given his long injury history and age – he turns 35 in early June – he will probably get 375 PA or so and will most likely undergo a decline in production next year, and even if his production drops 10%, a fair estimate, he should still be worth about one win above replacement.

The other players receiving the majority of time at DH last season were Jim Thome, who won’t be back next season, and Shelley Duncan; neither of them topped 100 PA at the position.  Collectively, the team’s DHs hit .267/.338/.451 and were worth about 2.5 wins.

Assuming Hafner re-injures those problematic areas next season, which is a fair assumption, a combination of Duncan, Aaron Cunningham, and Cord Phelps are likely to be the recipients of the extra playing time, with Grady Sizemore in the mix occasionally too.

So, how likely is it that the team’s DHs repeat their production in 2012?  Well, truthfully, it’s probably a push, or close to one.  Outside of Hafner, Duncan and Co. hit .253/.315/.450, which shouldn’t be that difficult to achieve considering the three most likely candidates to replace him.  Sure, the slugging percentage may drop, but the OBP should rise, assuming Phelps, who has no real position, is given the first shot.  He floundered in his first stint, but he does a good job squaring up on the ball and combines that ability with strong plate discipline: he’s walked in almost 12% of his career minor league plate appearances.  And the team will be looking to get him playing time any way they can.

Overall, designated hitter should remain a decent source of production for the team next year, somewhere along the lines of the level established in 2011.

YEAR

PLAYER

PA

AVG.

OBP.

SLG.

OPS

Def. Value

Appox. WAR (fWAR)

2011

Travis Hafner

368

0.280

0.361

0.449

0.810

N/A

+1.5

Other

295

0.253

0.315

0.450

0.765

N/A

+0.8

2012

Travis Hafner

375

0.270

0.340

0.440

0.780

N/A

+1.0

Other

300

0.250

0.320

0.430

0.750

Above Avg.

+0.8

Approximate Difference

-0.5

Figure 9: The 2011 and predicted 2012 production for designated hitters

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