Orginally presented on February 4 for the Cleveland chapter of SABR (Society of American Baseball Research), an in-depth player/positional analysis was performed to see how the 2012 Indians will fare.  This is part one of a 15 part series that will be released over the following two weeks.  Part I and Part III.

First Base

If it weren’t for catcher-turned-part-time-first-baseman Carlos Santana, the team’s production from the position would be among the worst in baseball.  Splitting all but 37 plate appearances with Matt LaPorta, the duo hit .247/.319/.444 at the position, and were worth about one win.

LaPorta was supposed to be the keystone of the C.C. Sabathiadeal, a slugging, middle-of-the-order first baseman that the team could pencil into the lineup for the better part of a decade.  Instead, he’s struggled to show the power and plate discipline he was known for in the minors, which twice led him to be recognized named among the top 30 prospects in baseball.  LaPorta, who owns a .298/.390/.566 line in the minors, has often looked lost at the plate, appearing at times as though he’s guessing at what the pitcher might throw instead of reacting, and his swing looks forced, stiff.

Photo Courtesy of Keith Allison via Flickr.com

He’s now three seasons and 1000+ plate appearances into his big league career, and has yet to show any positive progress.  His career walk rate is below league average; his power has barely been above it and it took a noticeable step backwards in 2011, and he owns a 2.5-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio.  All of this has led to one likely conclusion: he’s probably run out of chances with the club.  And that’s only cemented by the recent singing of Casey Kotchman, who’s likely to be the seventh – yes, the seventh – left-handed hitter in the team’s lineup.

Kotchman’s last two seasons have been on the opposite sides of the production spectrum.  In 2010, with the Seattle Mariners and, of course, its offense suppressing stadium, he hit a lowly .217/.280/.336; his overall offensive production was 34% below the league average, tied for fourth worst mark among players with at least 450+ plate appearances.  Then, last season, with the Tampa Bay Rays, Kotchman hit an incredible .306/.378/.422, the best season of his career eight-year career.

What happened?

Luck.

Kotchman’s BABIP showed an incredible, and probably historic, 106-point swing, going from .229 to .335.  He didn’t just go from bad to good luck.  No, he went from being down to his last dime to winning the lottery.  His career BABIP, even with the last two seasons, is still a rather unlucky .280 so there’s some regression to be expected next season.  But he’s still an interesting signing nonetheless.

Kotchman’s never been the prototypical slugging first baseman.  Instead, he relies heavily on a fantastic, above-average glove and an average to slightly above-average walk rate.  During his career he’s posted two seasons near the three win mark, which would represent a tremendous upgrade for the Indians.  So what’s expected of him next season, in 2012?

Well, excluding his horrific 2010 season, he’s averaged about two wins for every 500 plate appearances since 2007, his first full season, which also happens to be about the average for a major league starter.  His BABIP is going to decline, taking with it his average and OBP, but he should still be capable of hitting .270/.330/.390.  Not exactly a stellar performance, but combined with what should be plus glove-work, he should be worth about 1.5 wins, or almost 2.5 wins better than Matt LaPorta.

                                            Figure 2: The 2011 and predicted 2012 production for first basemen