Orginally presented on February 4 for the Cleveland chapter of SABR (Society of American Baseball Research), an in-depth player/positional analysis was performed to see how the 2012 Indians will fare. This is part one of a 15 part series that will be released over the following two weeks. The rest of the research/analysis can be found here.
Right Field
Consider this: there were 122 qualified players that registered a higher slugging percentage than the combined effort of Cleveland right fielders last season, .370, among them were Yuniesky Betancourt, Danny Valencia, and Michael Bourn. Simply put, Shin-Soo Choo’s injury marred, non-productive season cost the team as much as five wins last season.
Choo, who had become the bedrock of Cleveland production in previous years, led the right fielders – who hit a scant .246/.316/.370 – with a less than impressive .259/.344/.390. While he continued to play solid, if unspectacular, defense, he was worth less than one-and-a-half wins last, a number the rest of the right fielders failed to improve upon during his absence, and his main replacement, Kosuke Fukudome, only added to offensive frustrations, hitting .249/.300/.371.
Choo’s 2011 season, in large part, was a lost year. Injuries, including elbow soreness in Spring Training, a fractured thumb, and oblique issues that cost him 32 games near the end of the season – not to mention the early season DUI – all played a significant role in what was to become his worst professional season. In total, he missed 74 games due to injury, only 17 games less than he missed between 2007 and 2010, and that included Tommy John surgery!
Between 2009 and 2010, Choo, according to fWAR (wins above replacement as determined by fangraphs.com) was worth 11.1 WAR, fourteenth highest in baseball, ahead of Robinson Cano, Kevin Youkilis, Prince Fielder, and Mark Teixeira, among others. He displayed solid, 20+ HR power, a keen eye at the plate (12.1 BB% which led to a .397 OBP), and played slightly above average defense. Last season, even though the injuries had sapped his power and deflated his average, he still walked in over 10% of plate appearances, and perhaps most importantly, his strikeout rate, 21.8%, was just a tick higher than his 2009-2010 numbers. So he still boasted solid peripherals.
Choo’s still on the positive side of thirty – he doesn’t turn 29 until midseason – and there’s no reason, other than injury, of course, to suspect why he can’t return to the player he’s shown to be throughout his career: an elite level, five-tool, All-Star caliber right fielder.
|
YEAR |
PLAYER |
PA |
AVG. |
OBP. |
SLG. |
OPS |
Def. Value |
Appox. WAR (fWAR) |
|
2011 |
Total |
688 |
0.246 |
0.316 |
0.370 |
0.686 |
Avg. |
+1.5 |
|
2012 |
Shin-Soo Choo |
650 |
0.300 |
0.400 |
0.500 |
0.900 |
Avg. |
+6.0 |
|
Approximate Difference |
+4.5 |
|||||||
Figure 8: The 2011 and predicted 2012 production for right fielders
