Throughout his Major League career, Asdrubal Cabrera has, what one would assume, the rare distinction of  being three different offensive players: a strong walk rate, moderate-power offensive performer; a well below-average walk rate hitter with nonexistent power, and an above-average power hitter with a moderately below-average walk rate.  And interestingly enough his strikeout rates have been rather consistent during his career: since 2007, only once did his strikeout rate top the league average (2008).

Photo Courtesy of Keith Allison via Flickr.com

In his first three seasons, 2007-2009, Cabrera hit .287/.355/.411 and was five-percent above the league average (105 wRC+) offensive production, tenth highest among shortstops.  His walk rate, 9.0%, was the eleventh highest at the position and slightly above the league average, 8.7%.  And his ISO (Isolated Power), .125, was 28 points below the league average (approximately .153).

Then, two seasons ago, in 2010, Cabrera’s offensive production dropped to the lowest point of his career: his .276 average remained respectable enough, but his on-base percentage dipped to .326 and his slugging percentage declined to a miniscule .346; overall he was 15-percent below the league average.  His walk rate, 5.9%, tied for 171 out of 205 qualifying players, and his ISO tied for 194.

His most current season, 2011, was the best season of his career: he hit .273/.332/.460 and both his walk rate and ISO rebounded, 6.6% and .187, from their poor showings the previous year.

So, the question is which Cabrera – the moderate power, above-average walk rate hitter; the no power, low walk rate player, or the above-average power, slightly below average walk rate slugger – is the real Cabrera going forward, especially in 2012?

Looking at his monthly production, three things become readily apparent:

1. His production in May was largely      responsible for his overall numbers
2. His homerun totals were very consistent      throughout the course of the season
3. And his walk rate began to improve as the      season progressed, in spite of sagging production.

Cabrera’s month of May (.330/.372/.575) was, simply, the second best month of his entire career.  And his overall numbers are far less impressive without them: .261/.324/.436.  So what does this mean?  Well, it means that for 83% of his season (125 of the 151 games he played), he was a lot closer to a league average hitter.

Secondly, the large output of homeruns does seem sustainable – sort of.  Cabrera’s monthly homerun totals were remarkably consistent: five, five, three, four, and four.  It wasn’t one – or even two – solid months of driving the baseball; this was an entire season’s worth of consistency.  So, looking forward, the power seems like a legitimate offensive weapon for Cabrera though some regression might be expected, especially considering the abrupt jump in power (his previous career high was six).

Finally, Cabrera’s walk rate during the first three months of the season – a time in which he hit .296/.348/.500 – was surprisingly low, 5.6%.  However, during the second half, a period in which he struggled mightily (.246/.314/.414), his walk percentage rose more than two points, 7.7%, numbers a lot closer to his 2007-2009 totals.

So, what does all this mean?  He wasn’t forcing his production; he maintained a solid awareness of the strike zone.  It also means Cabrera has a fairly good chance at repeating his 2011 offensive production in 2012.  He’ll likely witness a decline in homeruns – probably a total that lands in the 15-19 range – but his walk rate, and subsequently, his OBP, should improve, somewhere around the high .340s or low .350s.

Defensively, as native-Clevelanders will attest, Cabrera was a highlight waiting to happen. Whether it was bare-handing grounders or behind-the-back flips, he seemed, at least by the naked eye, to improve quite tremendously. Eventually, he, along with J.J. Hardy, failed to top Erick Aybar for the AL Shortstop Gold Glove Award.  Except outside of the flashy plays – and there were plenty of them – Cabrera’s statistical defensive metrics were ordinary, league average at best.

According to billjamesonline.com, he was five runs below league average, numbers that parallel his career totals; his dWAR, as determined by baseballreference.com, was -0.7, and his UZR/150 (Ultimate Zone Rating per 150 games) was -12.6 runs.

But these numbers are nothing new for Cabrera.  His defense has consistently hovered near the league average: in three of his past four seasons, his UZR/150 totals have been between -12.6 and -14.9.  So there’s no reason to suspect any further decline, especially given his age, nor is there any reason to suspect any large improvements.

Going forward, in 2012, what is the likelihood that Asdrubal Cabrera repeats his breakout 2011 season (3.6 fWAR and 3.7 bWAR)?

It’s incredibly likely that he can match last season’s production (3.6 fWAR and 3.7 bWAR), or at least come close.  Certainly, his defensive numbers, albeit ones that are slightly below-average, seem repeatable, and his offensive numbers, even though he may see a decline in homeruns, should be reachable goals as well, especially if his walk rate begins to move back towards his early career norms, which, again, began to do so in the second half.

Figure 5: The 2011 and predicted 2012 production for shortstops