Justin Masterson, the de facto ace, at least prior to the acquisition of Ubaldo Jimenez, was the most valuable Indians player last season, not All-Star shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera or switch-hitting catcher Carlos Santana.  Whether it’s the total determined by baseball-reference.com or fangraphs.com, Masterson led all Cleveland players in wins above replacement (4.1 bWAR and 4.9 fWAR).

Essentially a two-pitch pitcher, Masterson throws a heavy two-seamer in the low-to-mid 90s with plus-plus movement generated from his low three-quarter arm slot and a low 80s slider. Rarely will he flash a changeup, and then it’s almost exclusively shown to left-handers.

Prior to the 2011 season, many, including ESPN’s Keith Law, doubted his ability to consistently challenge lefthanders fearing that his low arm slot created longer looks from the opposite side of the plate and wouldn’t allow him to consistently keep the ball on the inner half of the plate.[1]  The big righthander answered that question, and seemingly, so many more.

Masterson posted a slightly below average strikeout rate, 6.58, but excelled because he limited free passes fairly well (2.71 BB/9, a career best) and produced groundball, after groundball, after groundball.  His groundball rate, 55.1% was the seventh highest in baseball.  Many of his other peripheral, or indicative stats, suggest that, barring injury, he should be able to repeat his 4+ WAR season.

His BABIP (batting average on balls in play) was .302, slightly above the league average but also in line with his career marks (.314 in 2009 and .324 in 2010).  His FIP (3.28), xFIP (3.64), and SIERA (3.68) were in close proximity to his actual ERA (3.21), which suggests he was neither lucky nor unlucky. His strikeout and walk rates, 6.6 SO/9 and 2.7 BB/9, are more or less in line with his minor league numbers, 7.5 SO/9 and 2.3 BB/9.  And, perhaps most importantly, his platoon split against southpaws (.291/.331/.415 in 513 PA), albeit far from strong, was an improvement from the previous season (.784 OPS), but not the type gigantic leap that would lead to speculation concerning its legitimacy.

So, in other words, Justin Masterson should come close to repeating his four WAR season in 2012.

Joining Masterson atop the Cleveland rotation is mid-season pickup Ubaldo Jimenez.  Much was made about the reported decline in velocity (his average fastball velocity dropped from 96.1 mph in 2009 and 2010 to 93.5mph in 2011), but most of his important stats remained largely unchanged.

From 2006 to 2010, he averaged 8.1 strikeouts and 4.0 walks per nine innings; in 2011, 8.6 SO/9 and 3.7 BB/9.  His homerun rate for the first five years of his career, 0.6 HR/9, was only slightly lower than last season’s mark (0.8 HR/9) too.  He did, however, allow almost 1.5 hits more last season, but that can be explained largely by the spike in his BABIP (it jumped nearly 45 points).

However, the decline in velocity could very well likely be long term: from 2009 to 2010 (66 starts), his average fastball velocity for an entire game dropped below 95 mph only seven times; it topped that mark twice last season.  Maybe it’s the long arm action.  Maybe his arm is just slowing down.  But whatever the reason, it’s a strong possibility that the drop in velocity is permanent.

Jimenez will benefit from pitching in any other park other than Coors Field.  According to baseballreference.com, any number above 100 for the batting park factor favors the hitter, and likewise, any number below 100 favors the pitcher.  The batting park factor for Coors Field last season was 116, way above average; Progressive Field was 96.  Obviously, that’s quite a significant difference between both fields.

Regardless of which WAR total is used, Jimenez suffered his worst season since 2007.    But his LOB% (65%), HR/FB rate (9.3%), and BABIP (.314) should regress some next season.  He’s a strong candidate to improve in 2012, perhaps as much as 1.5 WAR, especially considering his move away from Colorado.

Fausto Carmona, who was likely the third starting pitcher, was found to be using an illegal name and will most likely miss a significant portion of the season, which is unfortunate given the likelihood that he probably would have improved by at least one win in 2012.  For analysis of Carmona, prior to the revelation coming forth, please refer to the last five paragraphs in this section.

Derek Lowe, the newly acquired groundball specialist, will likely be the team’s third starter.  Lowe was a lot better than his 5.05 ERA would indicate: his FIP (3.70), xFIP (3.65), and SIERA (3.75) were significantly lower suggesting that he, too, suffered from bad luck.  In fact, his numbers have been incredibly consistent over the last three seasons; his FIP, xFIP, and SIERA have all been between 3.54 and 4.30.

Yes, it’s true the sinker-balling righthander turns 39-years-old in June, but he’s shown remarkable consistency in the National League during his decline years.  Not only has his ERA indicators held firm, his fastball has only declined 0.6 mph.

It’s very likely that Lowe will see a decline moving back into the AL, but some of that could be negated as his LOB% slides back up; his 65.9% was the lowest mark since 2004.  So he should be worth approximately two wins above replacement next season, about half of a win decline from his 2010 numbers.

The 2011 season was a rough one for right-hander Kevin Slowey.  Slowey, who had become a rather interesting pitcher during his first four seasons in Minnesota, battled injuries for most of last season, missed 26 games due to right shoulder inflammation and an additional 55 games because of an abdominal strain.

Slowey, like many Minnesota starters, has garnered a reputation as a strong control pitcher, one that won’t miss many bats – his career strikeout rate is 6.67 SO/9 – but will rarely issue free passes.  Since his first year, 2007, he has allowed less than one-an-a-half walks per nine innings; his total, 1.42 BB/9, during that time is the second lowest among pitchers with 500 or more innings.

Slowey throws the standard four-pitch mix: fastball, curveball, slider, and changeup.  But he tends to elevate the ball a bit too much, as evidenced by his career fly ball rate, 48%.  The inter-divisional switch from Minnesota to Cleveland, and Progressive Field, shouldn’t influence his numbers greatly because of similar park factors.

He’s also sported ERAs higher than the indicators suggest: his career ERA is 4.66 and SIERA is 4.09.  So that tends to suggest he’s been a bit unlucky.

Assuming he’s fully healthy to begin the season, Slowey should be able to maintain his career peripheral numbers – 6.67 SO/9 and 1.42 BB/9 – and post an ERA in the low 4.00s.  He’s been worth as many as three wins in a season, but averaged just a little over two from 2008-2010.  There’s nothing to suspect that he can’t achieve that in 2012.

It’s not safe to assume Slowey can throw too many more innings over 150 – his career best 160.1 – because of injuries that tend to plague him.

Admittedly, Josh Tomlin is a fun pitcher to watch.  He’s not overpowering, but shows a lot of guile as he works both sides of the plate with his upper 80s fastball.  He relies heavily on a solid-average cutter and will flash the occasional above-average overhand curveball too.

Last season was a bit of a breakout year for Tomlin: he tossed 165+ innings with a 4.25 ERA and was worth just shy of two wins.

While he doesn’t miss a lot of bats – his 4.84 SO/9 was the sixth lowest total among qualified starters – he rarely issues a walk.  In 238.1 big league innings he’s averaged only 1.5 walks per nine innings, and in almost 600 career minor league innings his walk rate was 1.9 BB/9.

Obviously, with his fringy stuff he doesn’t have a lot of room for error, but given the fact that his BABIP was a lowly .253 there’s strong reason to suspect a decline.  Expect him to be worth about one win next season, or about half of his production from 2011.

Outside of the main starters last season, Zach McAllister, Jeanmar Gomez, David Huff, and former Indian Mitch Talbot hovered around replacement level in their limited action, a number that should be easily repeatable next season.

Overall, the rotation should be worth about four and a half additional wins than the 2011 rotation.

Notes on Roberto Hernandez Heredia (formerly known as Fausto Carmona)

Fausto Carmona, perhaps the most maddeningly inconsistent pitcher in baseball, will look to convince the front office to pick up his $9 million club option for 2013.  Carmona’s career has been anywhere from All-Star caliber (2007; 4.2 fWAR) to close to replacement level (2008, 2009, and 2011) to somewhere in between (2010; 2.5 fWAR). 

As Carmona moves further and further away from his magical 2007season, it seems increasingly likely that season was the aberration, not his poor years.  Removing that from consideration, there are two distinct data sets over the last four years: 2008 to 2009 and 2010 to 2011. 

Between 2008 and 2009, Carmona’s command, or perhaps his concentration, seemingly abandoned him: in 246 innings, he averaged more walks (5.1 BB/9) than strikeouts (5.0 SO/9).  In the latter two years his command improved, to 1.77 SO/BB. 

What can be expected in 2012?  Well, assuming that his command issues are completely in the past (his 2.9 BB/9 was the second lowest mark of his career), Carmona, like Jimenez, is likely to improve next season as his rates, mainly LOB%, begin to regress back towards the norm.  His LOB% was the only noticeable change between 2011 and 2010; it declined by almost 10 percentage points, to 62.1%, which also happens to be about 10 percentage points below the league average.  

So as that number begins to move back up, his value should begin to increase too.  He should see about a full win improvement. 

YEAR	PLAYER	IP	ERA	K/9	BB/9	Appox. WAR (fWAR)
2011	Justin Masterson	215.0	3.22	6.57	2.68	+4.9
	Ubaldo Jimenez	65.1	5.10	8.54	3.72	+1.0
	Fausto Carmona	188.2	5.25	5.20	2.86	+1.5
	Carlos Carrasco	124.2	4.62	6.01	2.89	+1.4
	Josh Tomlin	165.1	4.25	4.84	1.14	+1.8
	Other	202.1	5.16	5.74	3.34	+1.5
2012	Justin Masterson	220.0	3.60	7.00	3.10	+4.9
	Ubaldo Jimenez	210.0	3.80	8.40	3.60	+5.0
	Derek Lowe	170.0	4.40	5.90	3.10	+2.0
	Kevin Slowey	150.0	4.20	6.50	1.50	+2.0
	Josh Tomlin	150.0	4.60	5.00	2.00	+1.0
	Other	Replacement Level Production (PUSH)
Approximate Difference						4.5

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