Orginally presented on February 4 for the Cleveland chapter of SABR (Society of American Baseball Research), an in-depth player/positional analysis was performed to see how the 2012 Indians will fare.  This is part one of a 15 part series that will be released over the following two weeks.  The rest of the research/analysis can be found here. 

Jack Hannahan, a career .224/.311/.347 player prior to the 2011 season, hit .250/.331/.388 and played above-average, and at times, spectacular defense.  His total offensive contribution was league average, wRC+ of 100, and combined with his defensive prowess, he was worth just north of two wins above replacement, fifteenth highest among third basemen with 350+ PA, ahead of several bigger named players including David Wright (1.9 fWAR) and Chipper Jones (2.1 fWAR).

Hannahan’s surprising start – he slugged .271/.349/.481 during the first month of the season – allowed the organization to keep top prospect Lonnie Chisenhall in Triple-A for much needed seasoning.

Chisenhall, 22, admittedly, had a rather inauspicious debut: in 57 games, the sweet swinging lefty hit .255/.284/.415, played decent defense, and was worth just shy of one win above replacement. 

Overall, Cleveland third basemen hit .248/.314/.383 and played above-average defense, due in large part to Hannahan, and were worth approximately three wins above replacement, a solid, if not surprising total.

Next season the team will likely reverse rolls between the two third basemen, opting to give Chisenhall the larger bulk of playing time, and with it, his first extended action against left-handers.  Given Hannahan’s defensive superiority, Chisenhall will likely receive 350 to 400 at bats next season, and Hannahan, 225 or so, with the occasional late-inning defensive appearance.

Chisenhall, according to the 2011 Baseball America Prospect Handbook, “is one of the best pure hitters in the minors.  He has a simple left-handed swing that’s easy for him to repeat and allows him to stay inside the baseball.”  Given such glowing praise it’s not surprising that he has ranked no lower than the sixth best prospect in the Tribe organization, and that was prior to the 2009 season, only his second with the organization.  His name, seemingly, should be inked as the team’s starting third basemen for years to come except, well, sans a decent showing in High-A (.241/.340/.406), he’s failed to consistently hit left-handers.

Over the past two seasons his OPS totals against southpaws in Columbus and Akron were a Mario Mendoza-esque .642 and .674 – in almost 250 plate appearances.  But there is hope: during his four-year professional career he’s received less than 500 plate appearances against lefties.  Obviously, his learning curve has been a little steeper than most; hence the reason the team will likely place him in a semi-platoon at third base, even though Hannahan also hits left-handed.  Look for the club to bring him along slowly, especially against the league’s tougher southpaws.

Last season, Chisenhall hit a rather vanilla .255/.284/.415 during his debut.  His walk rate, 3.6%, plummeted to more than half of his career minor league number, 8.6%.  He did show solid power for a 22-year-old rookie: his 13 doubles and seven homeruns led to an ISO, .160, that was 16 points above the league average.  But his numbers against left-handers, .260/.288/.600, which, admittedly, were from a small sample size (52 PA), more or less paralleled his previous track record.  The power spike, the result of the aforementioned small sample size, is, simply, unrepeatable, but the most telling was his strikeout-to-walk ratio: 14-to-2.

Overall, he’s very likely to improve, if ever so slightly, upon his overall production.  Both his average and power are within close proximity to his career numbers and his walk rate will likely increase, somewhere in the neighborhood of 6.5% to 7.0%.  If given 350 to 400 at bats, it’s reasonable to assume that he’d be worth about one-and-a-half wins  above replacement, or slightly less the amount Hannahan was worth last season.

Outside of two Triple-A seasons late in his minor league career, Hannahan, the second left-handed swinger in the semi-platoon at third, has never really hit professional pitching, at any level.  His minor league numbers, .268/.359/.391, are far from solid and his major league line prior to 2011 was, unsurprisingly, even worse, .224/.311/.347.  But he’s valuable for one reason: his glove work.

According to Baseball Reference’s defensive WAR, in 3003.1 innings (approximately two full defensive seasons), he’s been worth about two wins, or about one win prorated over a full season.  There were 19 players that had 300 or more plate appearances and spent some time at third base that were worth less than one win.  19! Hannahan, theoretically, should be worth that defensively.

He isn’t likely to repeat his offensive numbers next season, especially considering that he hit .243/.326/.358 after April.  Those numbers, actually, are a close representation of his skill set: low average, decent walk rate, no power.

Essentially, he a replacement level player with an above-average glove.  He should be worth, approximately, one win in 2012. 

Figure 4: The 2011 and predicted 2012 production for third basemen